Right, New York Times, Scientists Do Disagree on The Polar Vortex

A recent article in The New York Times (NYT) “What’s Up With This Big Freeze? Some Scientists See Climate Change Link” describes different perspectives of climate scientists regarding winter cold extremes. Some scientists are claiming based on climate model projections that global warming is making extreme cold snaps worse, others point out that that data does not support those claims. The latter are correct, long-term trend data points towards a clear decline in extreme cold rather than any increase in polar breakouts.

Saying this perspective is held by only “some scientists” is a step in the right direction for the NYT. It is certainly a more honest take than last week’s firm declaration that “climate change is fueling extremes, both hot and cold,” which Climate Realism debunked with well established weather data.

NYT reports that at least one scientist, Dr. Cohen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says “climate warming in the Arctic is causing this disruption of the polar vortex,” which leads to breakouts of extreme cold from the Arctic, brought south by the polar jet stream.

The polar vortex theory is unfounded in historical evidence. The theory isn’t new, climate alarmists have fearmongered about a “destabilizing” polar jet stream for years, and data has long existed that refutes it. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration wrote after a February 2021 cold snap that “on average, winters are warmer and cold extremes are less likely than they were a century ago.”

Climate Realism has covered the polar vortex/jet stream issue several times, here, here, and here, and the evidence has not become stronger since those posts.

The NYT recovered a modicum of credibility by acknowledging a handful of other perspectives, saying “not all scientists agree.” The authors quote other expert research scientists saying the models and papers published by Cohen and his collaborators are “often not that convincing,” because “long-term temperature trends and climate models show the exact opposite[.]”

Another scientist interviewed explained “[w]hat the data shows is that these cold extremes are getting less extreme, and they will continue to get less extreme,” and “it’s difficult to link a given weather event, such as a cold spell, to climate change.”

All of this is absolutely true.

Publicly available data looking at deadly cold snaps in the United States show they are becoming less frequent over time, not more. Winters in the 1890s, 1910s, and 1970s were significantly worse than they are today. (See figure below)