In his last speech as director of the Global Warming Policy Foundaton, Benny Peiser concluded that climate alarmists are now basically on their own. But “the main problem now is that governments are being shackled, not just by the bureaucracy and the civil service, but also by the courts and the lawfare that is being adopted by campaigners.”

Peiser held his online talk, organised by ICSF and Clintel, on Wednesday, January 29th.

 

“Three years ago, after the Glasgow COP, I said we were moving into a different phase of the climate debate and I said the focus was now shifting away from the science and shifting to the cost of Net Zero and the cost of climate policies. Within three years this has really materialized and perhaps much faster than even I anticipated”, said Peiser in his last speech as director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. “It’s clear now that people are much more concerned about the cost of Net Zero policies then about the potential of climate change. The climate alarm, although it hasn’t died down, is no longer trusted by huge chunks of the public. The climate scientists have overplayed their hands. They have basically caused so much partisanship, censorship and intimidation that they’ve lost the trust of the public by and large.”

“We will now have to decide what to do with the climate and energy policy agenda and how governments can really get off the climate hook. The main problem is that governments are being shackled, not just by the bureaucracy and the civil service, but also by the courts and the lawfare that is being adopted by campaigners.”

Media

The situation in the media has only really changed recently, in the last two or three years, said Peiser, as a result of the rise of alternative media and social media. “Twitter or X has made a huge difference but there are also other media outlets and news outlets who have made a big difference. And of course we’ve seen 15 years of one climate disaster prophecy after another. Most of these predictions of course never materialized, despite rising temperatures. There isn’t a single extreme weather event with catastrophic consequences that has increased in recent decades, despite the fact that temperatures have continued to go up.”

“Climate change happens much more slowly and much more gradually, despite the headlines. The trend is still only half of what the IPCC originally predicted. But the reality is that more people now are much more concerned about Net Zero and the de-industrialization of Europe. The climate alarmists are really on their own. They have a few allies like Extinction Rebellion and some hardcore eco-socialists. Most people, more than half at least, are more concerned about the policy costs than about the climate agenda.”

“The Europeans have put all their eggs in one basket, The Net Zero basket, and almost everything they have proposed and almost everything they have implemented is falling apart. There is not a single Net Zero policy that is going according to plan, whether it’s heat pumps or battery factories or EV’s. Europe has managed to reduce its CO2 emissions primarily by shifting industry abroad and importing most of its goods from abroad, so they can say we are emitting less. But in actual fact, if you add all the stuff that is imported from China and other Asian country onto the carbon footprint, it doesn’t look that well.”

China

“The Net Zero policies lead to economic disaster and the European car industry is now facing an existential crisis as a result. China of course, is the elephant in the room in terms of CO2 emissions. China is overtaking the EU in terms of overall emissions, not just recent but overall. China has now overtaken Europe as a bigger historical emitter of CO2 and is soon going to challenge the US too. But in the meantime, China is a developing country, officially…Under UN rules China can do whatever they want. They don’t have to adhere to any binding targets because they are, and they claim to be, a developing country. They say they will always be a developing country. That’s the official Chinese position`. Some might say: look how many wind farms and solar farms they’ve built, but it’s a drop in the ocean. Basically China is free riding on cheap coal and they are burning coal as if there’s no tomorrow.”

Coal

Coal is at a record high, despite 20 to 30 years of climate alarmism, said Peiser. “When I wrote a piece in 2010 about the Copenhagen COP (15), I already said energy demand was going to double by 2050. The idea that you can give up on coal, gas and oil was just completely delusional. However, China is free riding, which means Europeans can no longer compete with China. If you give up on cheap coal and cheap gas and bank on expensive and unilateral Net Zero policies, this is the result: electricity prices are going through the roof and your industry is becoming uncompetitive. European prices are two to three, sometimes four, times as high as in the US or in China.”

“For the first time we’ve seen the EU now admitting that they can’t continue business as usual and that they have a problem. More and more EU officials and politicians are saying we have to roll back the whole Net Zero agenda in Europe, the Green Deal.”

Trump

Trump wants to drill, baby, drill. The question is whether, despite his announcement that he will withdraw from Paris agreement, he can make a difference, Peiser thinks. “This is the problem every government in the world, in particular in the Western World, now faces. We have seen European politicians, even French politicians, saying we have to delay the green rules. So there is huge pressure now on the EU to roll back Net Zero. But the big question is how do you actually roll back policies given that you’ve introduced all these Net Zero laws and targets? Trump has a mandate; he won an election, he has a majority in both houses and still the climate activists can go to the courts. There are laws and therefore Trump can’t do what he wants to do. The biggest challenge for Western democracies today is this: even if a party win elections with a mandate and says in advance what it wants to do, the left and the eco-socialists go to court and stop them from doing it because of the laws and the environmental regulations.”

“So the biggest hurdle for governments to get off the hook, is the inherent Net Zero laws, the inherent climate laws, the inherent targets and the carbon budgets. The only way you can actually get off the hook effectively, is by changing the law and that is more difficult than said because many parties in the Western World, perhaps less so in the US, are split. Not just in the mainstream but also on the right. The centre right parties and the conservative parties are all split. They all have very strong green wings who will join their political opponents.”

EPA

Trump 1.0 never managed to overcome the hurdle of the so-called endangerment finding, which basically says CO2 is a dangerous pollutant. “It wasn’t really touched by the EPA. The Trump EPA never tried to overturn it. So now Trump 2.0 is trying to go down that route because without changing the law, things will be very, very difficult. A few months ago, the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the EPA’s endangerment finding, which is basically the main law preventing a US administration going all out for drill, baby, drill. It says that the administration is bound by this law and can’t take action because CO2 is a dangerous pollutant. It’s dangerous to our health and it’s dangerous to the planet and therefore   governments have to curtail any energy policies that the environmental lobby thinks go against this law. Francis Menton, president of the American Friends of the GWPF, has written extensively about how the endangerment finding can be overturned.” (See website Manhattan Contrarian).”

“The G7 has a different tactic to get off the hook and that is basically to say there won’t be any money, unless China gives up its Developing Nation status. That in itself will become the topic of the next few COP meetings. There won’t be any money coming from the other G7 countries unless China gives up its free riding role, which is a very powerful argument for not continuing unilateral decarbonization. That is basically the European exit strategy: put an ultimatum to the Chinese and say: unless you give up this free riding Developing Nation status, we will change our climate laws accordingly. We will no longer be fooled into unilateral decarbonization. It makes no sense, because whatever Europe, or even the US, is doing in terms of cutting down CO2, it is overwhelmed by the Chinese and other Asian nations emitting CO2.”

Tears

“So after 15 years of telling people that this is not going to work, that it will end in tears and that energy reality and Net Zero don’t go together, I think we are now at a situation for the first time when politicians and policy makers are knocking on our door and saying: please help us to get off the hook. We need ideas and policy alternatives to get off the hook.”

“I am pretty sure that my successor will have a much easier time in his role at the GWPF. And the Irish Climate Science Foundation and Clintel will have an easier time than in the last 15 years, because we are now essentially saying what the vast majority of people think.”

Peiser will be retiring as director at the end of March after 15 years. He will stay on as a trustee of the GWPF.