This article was written by dr. Matthew Wielicki and was previously published on July 6, 2025 on his website Irrational Fear. 

A Call for Truth and Action, Not Political Exploitation

The heartbreaking flooding in central Texas, including the devastating loss of young lives at a girls’ camp near Austin, is a tragedy that demands reflection, accountability, and action, not political grandstanding. This catastrophe, while deeply painful, must be examined through a lens of historical and scientific clarity, not hijacked to push climate change or budgetary blame games.

https://www.cnn.com/weather/live-news/texas-flooding-camp-mystic-07-06-25-hnk

The Flooding Crisis: What Happened?

The severe flooding that struck central Texas, including areas near Austin, has brought renewed attention to the vulnerabilities of flood-prone valleys. Heavy rains rapidly overwhelmed local waterways, causing flash flooding that destroyed homes, infrastructure, and tragically claimed lives. Reports indicate that despite receiving advanced warning from weather services, the response at local and regional levels was tragically insufficient, highlighting critical gaps in emergency preparedness and land-use planning. I’ve previously detailed similar failures in emergency preparedness and the consequences in my article, “Shifting the Blame”.

Historical Context of Texas Flooding

Historically, central Texas is recognized as one of the most flood-prone areas in the United States. Flood events have occurred with devastating frequency and intensity for decades. The construction of dams and reservoirs throughout the 20th century was largely driven by the necessity of managing these frequent flooding episodes. Ironically, these infrastructure developments dramatically reduced flood magnitudes across many rivers, making the recent catastrophe even more indicative of infrastructure and regulatory failure than any long-term climatic shift. I expanded on the importance of historical context and its frequent omission from climate narratives in my earlier article, “Unnatural Disasters,” dealing with the Palisades Fire, which was also blamed on climate change.

According to extensive research, including the recent Texas A&M 2024 Climate Report, river flooding in central Texas has not demonstrated a significant long-term increasing trend. The report explicitly states,

“No long-term river flooding trend has been identified in the observations, nor is such a trend projected at this point…”

Evaluating the Official Government Reports

Detailed examination of reports from the EPA and NOAA provides a critical counterpoint to simplistic climate narratives often pushed by the media and politicians. EPA documentation confirms that while the frequency of intense rainfall events has slightly risen, overall water availability and river flow in Texas have actually declined due to increased evaporation rates, changing vegetation, and altered land-use practices.

Additionally, NOAA and Texas A&M climate data explicitly contradict claims that extreme rainfall frequency and flooding are unprecedented or primarily climate-driven. Central Texas has experienced variable rainfall trends, with recent decades showing primarily decreasing precipitation, dependent largely upon specific locations within the state. EPA data plots show variability rather than clear upward trends in flooding events, undermining the narrative that climate change alone drives increased flooding… unless climate change is only working in certain parts of the country.

This figure shows changes in the size of flooding events in rivers and streams in the United States between 1965 and 2015. Blue upward-pointing symbols show locations where floods have become larger; brown downward-pointing symbols show locations where floods have become smaller. The larger, solid-color symbols represent stations where the change was statistically significant. Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-river-flooding

Dissecting the Climate Narrative and Political Exploitation

Despite clear data from authoritative sources, politicians and certain climate scientists quickly leveraged the tragedy to blame recent federal budget cuts to agencies like NOAA and the National Weather Service. They suggested these budgetary adjustments significantly impaired weather forecasting, amplifying fatalities from severe weather events.

One particularly egregious example is a recent statement by Jay Inslee, who attempted to link President Trump’s policy actions on renewable energy directly to the Texas floods, claiming cuts to solar and wind energy have exacerbated extreme weather.

This claim is not only scientifically baseless but profoundly insensitive, using tragedy to push a political agenda.

However, historical records of flood-related fatalities…

clearly shows no definitive upward trend correlating with agency budgets, GHG concentration, or global average temperature. Death tolls from flooding fluctuate year-to-year without demonstrable dependence on changes in agency staffing or funding. These data-driven insights expose the politically motivated nature of claims linking recent budgetary decisions to tragic fatalities.

The Reality of Warnings and Response

Importantly, media reports confirm that local authorities and residents had ample warning of the impending severe weather event, over 12 hours of advanced notice.

“According to the National Weather Service website, the flash flood watch, which included Kerr County, was issued at 1:18 p.m. Thursday. Nearly 12 hours later, a “life threatening” flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m., according to the website.”

Despite this clear and timely warning, the emergency response and community preparedness failed catastrophically. The failure was one of planning, zoning, and infrastructure, not the availability or accuracy of weather data, nor GHG concentration.

Real Solutions, Not Climate Alarmism

The misdirection towards climate alarmism distracts from pragmatic, essential responses needed to safeguard lives and property. The tragedy at the girls’ camp highlights dire deficiencies in land-use regulations and flood infrastructure. Building camps or residential areas within flood-prone valleys without adequate mitigation measures inevitably invites disaster.

Practical solutions exist: strengthening flood infrastructure, improving land-use zoning, investing in better emergency management systems, and implementing stricter regulations to restrict development in flood-prone areas. These solutions are immediate, actionable, and demonstrably effective, unlike vague climate-oriented rhetoric.

A Commitment to Continuous Data-Driven Updates

Moving forward, I commit to yearly updates analyzing new data on flooding events and fatalities, specifically to evaluate if the Trump administration’s budget cuts directly contribute to increased flooding fatalities. When these updates definitively demonstrate that budgetary adjustments have not led to an increase in fatalities, it raises a critical question: Will those who perpetuate this misleading narrative be held accountable?