Van Wijngaarden: “No scientific support for net zero policies”

Professor William A. van Wijngaarden, a physicist at York University in Toronto, argues in an online presentation that actual scientific observations do not support the narrative of a human-made climate crisis. By examining historical temperature and extreme weather trends, he demonstrates that radical net-zero policies are unnecessary and will cause profound damage to modern society.

In a presentation produced for Canadians for Sensible Climate Policy in collaboration with The Canadian Freedom Institute, Dr. van Wijngaarden provides an evidence-based review of global climate data. He highlights that while carbon dioxide concentrations have risen from 320 parts per million in 1960 to roughly 430 parts per million today, the resulting warming has not been a steady, linear progression. Instead, the climate has changed in “fits and starts,” including a significant warming period between 1905 and 1940, a slight cooling phase until 1975, and a notable “global warming hiatus” between 2000 and 2016 that no climate models predicted.

Natural Cycles and Overstated Risks

The central challenge to current climate policy lies in the massive discrepancy between theoretical projections and historical records. When analyzed, the average of approximately 100 different climate models predicts about three times as much warming as has actually been observed. This exaggeration often stems from doubling CO2 climate sensitivity estimates; while models suggest a 3°C rise, observational evidence points toward a much more modest 1°C increase. Historical evidence further suggests that climate variations are often driven by natural cycles. For instance, water depth records from the Nile River between 600 AD and 1500 AD show massive fluctuations that occurred centuries before the industrial use of fossil fuels.

Similarly, the retreat of glaciers in places like Alaska’s Glacier Bay began in the 1800s, a period when greenhouse gas levels were barely changing, indicating a natural recovery from the Little Ice Age. This pattern of natural variability is often missing from the modern “crisis” narrative, which frequently misattributes extreme weather to human activity. Despite public perception, data from the last 45 years shows no clear upward trend in hurricane frequency or intensity, and the number of wildfires in Canada has actually trended downward since 1990. Even concerns regarding ocean acidification are often overstated; the projected 0.25 pH change from doubling CO2 is comparable to the natural variations sea life experiences daily through tides or changes in depth.

Killing every cow on earth

Beyond the temperature debate, the radical push for net-zero ignores the biological necessity and benefits of carbon dioxide. Increased CO2 levels act as a powerful fertilizer, significantly accelerating plant growth and making vegetation more resilient to drought. As CO2 levels rise, the pores in plant leaves—known as stomata—shrink, reducing water loss and allowing plants to thrive in drier regions. This “greening” of the planet is a direct result of higher carbon concentrations and is observed by NASA in regions like the Sahel.

Dr. van Wijngaarden warns that policies targeting nitrogen-based fertilizers or cattle to reduce methane are particularly concerning. His calculations show that removing every cow on the planet would only reduce global temperatures by a trivial 0.05°C. Likewise, outlawing fertilizer would devastate global food yields for a temperature saving of less than a tenth of a degree per century. He concludes that these radical efforts to “stop climate change” lack a scientific basis and pose a severe threat to the global standard of living without providing any measurable environmental gain.