Australia experienced severe drought during the 1990s, and for much of that decade Australia’s National Climate Centre was headed by meteorologist Bill Kininmonth.  He provided advice to government and also to the IPCC.  Bill subsequently published an important book entitled ‘Climate Change: A Natural Hazard’.  In it he explains that the model of the climate system represented by the IPCC is inadequate as a foundation for future planning.  Of course, we need to have some idea of the likely severity of droughts and floods if we are to adequately plan for them.

Just recently, Bill wrote a short piece (click here) based on his analysis of publicly available temperature data concerning both the tropical oceans and lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by satellites.   Based on this evidence, Bill argues:

  1. Temperatures, and rates of warming globally, are regulated by the tropical ocean,
  2. The pattern of warming both at altitude and across latitudes is not consistent with the theory of human-caused global warming.

This is important information, if we are to understand how the Earth might heat up and how it might cool down.   Some of us like reworking this puzzle, as we develop a new and more robust theory of climate complete with accurate new equations to describe global energetic constraints as they apply to the atmosphere.

If you would like to listen to my very first zoom interview, it will be next Thursday, with Bill.

You are invited to listen live.
When: Dec 5, 2024 07:00 PM Brisbane

Register in advance for this meeting:
https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZItdeCuqjwoE90uponYR8ANj-jtzXpQo7bc

After registering, you will hopefully receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the zoom.

At Lake Weyba ten years ago, photographed for The Australian newspaper, when it ran a series explaining  how the Bureau corrupt the historical temperature series stripping away the natural climate cycles until the record shows slow and consistent warming.

Postscript

Very often, I’m told that it would be more useful if I simplified my message, as though the world needs another slogan.    Of course, those who subscribe to the theory of human-caused global warming have many successful slogans and symbols, it is just a pity that their theory has no predictive value because it is not really a scientific theory at all.   It persists because of its political utility.

The history of science shows that paradigms, even when they turn out to be nonsense, are never disproven.  They are only ever replaced.

So, for sure we need a new theory of climate change, one based on realistic historical temperature reconstructions and consistent with the laws of physics.

One of the best tests of any scientific theory is its predictive value, its capacity to generate forecast and predictions with some degree of skill.

These are summaries of some of my historical temperature reconstructions for parts of mainland Australia, when I concerned myself with understanding the accuracy of the measurements and sorting and extracting the best data for my work forecasting monthly rainfall using artificial neural networks that are a form of AI.

Reposted from jennifermarohasy.com