There is No Climate Emergency,
a Message to the People

See pdf here

Guus Berkhout, President of Clintel

In the past decades the public has been flooded with fear-mongering stories, telling them that global temperatures will rise to catastrophically high levels.

Climate activists claim that the cause of all this impending doom is the increasing amount of CO₂ produced by human activities. The proposed solution is the so-called net-zero emission policy, aimed at lowering human net CO₂-emissions to the levels of the pre-industrial era of the late 1700s.

Those activists also claim that people should panic, and that time is running out: “Be aware that it is five minutes to midnight, we must act without delay!” Many thousands of scientists disagree;

Already

1817

are Clintel signatories.

In his numerous ‘last warning’ speeches, Antonio Guterres refers to computer simulations, not the real world. Greta Thunberg testified to the US Congress that there was ‘no science’ behind her ‘panic’ comment.  This info cannot be found in the media.

So why is there such a big difference between the scaring climate activists’ narrative and the optimistic climate scientists’ message, who believe there is no climate emergency? Please, before you continue reading, watch our message: Consensus meet CLINTEL

Not many citizens are aware that all the frightening climate predictions have been generated by computer models. And we know from experience in many other complex areas, how misleading computer models can be.

For example, think of the many wrong predictions by economic models or think of the large mistakes in recent pandemic modeling. The output of computer models depends fully on the assumptions that modelmakers put into them. In the past 50 years, the predictions of climate models about global warming and their dire effects have all been wrong. In the engineering community, they would be qualified as useless.

More specifically, the assumptions in climate modeling are such that predicted temperature changes turn out to be persistently too high. Even worse, extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, hurricanes etc. – are intentionally used to support the extreme climate predictions. But if we position the current extreme weather events in a historical context, we see that these events are ‘climate business as usual’. See Goklany, 2020.

The conclusion is that models (computer simulations) run ‘too hot’ and that predictions of adverse effects on humans are highly dubious. They project a catastrophic future that is not born out by observations. It is much wiser and safer to rely on measurements. The history of science tells us that significant steps forward are always fueled by observations from new measurement instruments.

Think of the very recent spectacular images of outer space by the new James Webb Space Telescope. The same good news applies to the modern satellites that deliver high-quality measurements around the Earth since 1979. Satellite data shows NO extreme warming, and this is cross-checked by millions of weather balloon measurements.

Therefore, let us make use of the abundant temperature measurements made through the years. Those from the beginning of the industrial period (1850) until the present (2020) we see in Figure 1. Measurements tell us that the temperature in 2020 is 1.1 ^oC higher than in 1850.

Figure 1: Global temperature curve as currently generally accepted from 1850-2020. If we extend the measurements to 2050, we see that the temperature is 1.6 ^oC higher than in 1850 (‘X-warming’).

Using Figure 1, let us extrapolate the satellite temperatures to the year 2050 by assuming that the temperature increase of the past 40 years (1980-2020) will carry on without any pausing and cooling. This generous projection results in a 2050-temperature that is 1.6^oC higher than in 1850. Now, here is the big question: ‘Is the global warming of 1.6^oC a scary result? Does this outcome really tell us that it is ‘five minutes to midnight’?

Let us look at today’s difference in mean temperature between Oslo (one of the big cities near the North Pole) and Singapore (one of the big cities near the Equator), see Figure 2. Measurements show that the difference is as much as 22^oC, twenty times bigger than the global warming between 1850 and 2020 and almost 14 times bigger than the so-called ‘scary’ global warming between 1850 and 2050.

Despite of this huge mean temperature difference of 22^oC, both cities are very prosperous and the citizens in both cities are enjoying life. So, why do the media tell us that a global warming of 1.6^oC or more will lead to a disaster (“the end is near”), while 22^oC difference between Oslo and Singapore turns out to be no problem whatsoever?

Figure 2: Global mean temperature from 1850-2050, together with the average temperature of the prospering cities Oslo and Singapore in 2020. Note that the global warming of 1.6 °C is marginal with respect to the difference of 22 °C between the two cities (almost factor 14)

The answer is adaptation! Mankind shows an impressive history, having survived many big changes in its living environment, including big changes in the Earth’s climate. Thanks to our ingenuity, human beings have always found clever solutions to cope with all past challenges, again and again. If you visit Oslo and Singapore, you see an impressive demonstration of human’s capability to adapt to climate differences of 22^oC.

There is another interesting observation to make. Gradual global warming is not a serious problem, whether it is caused by CO₂ or not. Not mitigation but adaptation is the solution. So, for all of those who would like to think that the present global warming is fully caused by CO₂, our conclusion stays unchanged.

Bear in mind that during the cooling period around 1900 and the temperature pause in the sixties (see Figure 1), the CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere continued to increase without delay. Hence, the anomalous temperature behavior in these two periods were indisputably caused by mother nature. The same applies for the large climate difference between Oslo and Singapore.

Finally, for those who still believe that CO₂-emissions are pollution, we urge you to remember that CO₂ is essential for all life on Earth. Additional CO₂ in the air has promoted growth in global biomass. It is also very favorable for agriculture, increasing crop yields worldwide.

If also this fact of life isn’t sufficient convincingly, please realize that with the availability of modern nuclear power plants we have ample time to create a global energy system with largely zero emission. But again, the big question is whether zero emission is a sensible goal.

In conclusion, don’t let the terrifying stories of supranational institutions – such as the UN, EU and WEF – scare you. Particularly, climate alarmists must not use extreme weather events to poison our children with fear:

The gradual global warming, which started around 1700 after the end of the Little Ice Age, is a fact and has not caused any serious problem. Our advice is: “Enjoy today’s climate, because stories from the Little Ice Age tell us that a cold climate is full of hardship”.

If we continue to invest in innovation, mankind can easily cope with any effect of further warming. Hence, we must stop the demoralizing back-to-the-past mitigation solutions. We observe that it only leads to decline and poverty.

Instead, we must focus on the power of adaptation, based on science, technology, and education. It will lead us into an era of prosperity for nature and mankind. Please, join our journey!

Climate related deaths (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined precipitously because richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths and swamp any potential climate signal.

Thirty years of climate summits have had no discernible effect on the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These summits cost an enormous amount of money. Money which can be better spent on adaptation measures.

Guus Berkhout is emeritus-professor of geophysics, member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)

SUPPORTERS WCD

1. Mario Marquinez Otálora, Argentina
2. Tim Davidson, Australia
3. Craig Davis, Australia
4. Anthony Grigor-Scott, Australia
5. Paul Hamilton, Australia
6. Alan Kennett, Australia
7. Nicholas Loades, Australia
8. Nuraini Magnusson, Australia
9. Matthew Moyes, Australia
10. Patrick O’Meley, Australia
11. Tom Polich, Australia
12. Ian Storey, Australia
13. Lynette Sunderland, Australia
14. Ingvar Warnholtz, Australia
15. Gerhard Ing. Lassnig, Austria
16. Karin E.J. Kolland, Austria
17. Franz Promock, Austria
18. Sebastien Calebout, Belgium
19. Bart Decroix, Belgium
20. Jelle D’Helft, Belgium
21. Mieke Franquet, Belgium
22. Luc Pintens, Belgium
23. Francisco Mendes Moraes, Brazil
24. Leif Andersen, Canada
25. patricia bowman, Canada
26. Ivanna Broesky, Canada
27. Robert Daye, Canada
28. Craig Horner, Canada
29. Dwight Jones, Canada
30. Leslie Keighan, Canada
31. Howard Phelan, Canada
32. Michal Princ, Canada
33. Derwyn Ross, Canada
34. Dr Howard Tenenbaum, Canada
35. Lyndon Trombley, Canada
36. Enrique Casanovas, Chile
37. René Hurtado, Chile
38. Jonothan Keir Sims, China
39. charles hope, Cyprus
40. Daniel Markvart, Czechia
41. Jiri Strachota, Czechia
42. Kaspar Bonde Eriksen, Denmark
43. Hugh Sharman, Denmark
44. Juhani Anttila, Finland
45. Ricol Fabien, France
46. Lucien Oulahbib, France
47. Peter Taylor, France
48. Noirtault Thierry, France
49. Achim Benoit, Germany
50. Christian Bickeböller, Germany
51. José de la Iglesia, Germany
52. Nikolai Dick, Germany
53. Adelbert Herzog, Germany
54. Christopher Hesse, Germany
55. Lynda Matschke, Germany
56. Kiana Meier-Friedhoff, Germany
57. Michael Wegener, Germany
58. Georgios Zikos, Greece
59. Nigel Lawrence, Guernsey
60. Bence Gabor Peter, Hungary
61. Pandu Wisaksono, Indonesia
62. Terry O Sullivan, Ireland
63. Rabbi Gabriel Cousens MD, Israel
64. Giuseppe Cautero, Italy
65. Massimiliano Diodati, Italy
66. Laura Fanfani, Italy
67. Maurizio Tambani, Italy
68. Vincenzo Trainito, Italy
69. Giancarlo Troiani, Italy
70. Giorgio Vismara, Italy
71. Carlo Besenius, Luxembourg
72. Paul Claes, Netherlands
73. Willem Hageman, Netherlands
74. Rene Houthoff, Netherlands
75. Dick Kraaijenbrink, Netherlands
76. Paul Markus, Netherlands
77. Sandro Stoffers, Netherlands
78. peter venema, Netherlands
79. Duncan Christie, New Zealand
80. Bruce C Collings, New Zealand
81. Jesper Siegfried Enerstvedt, Norway
82. Nina Jonsson, Norway
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86. Juan Lazo, Peru
87. Alain Charles Veloso, Philippines
88. Pablo de la Fuente de Pablo, Poland
89. Szymon G??bski, Poland
90. Marek Langalis, Poland
91. Rui Abreu, Portugal
92. Flavio Barbara, Portugal
93. Alexander Rodriguez, Singapore
94. Milos Dian, Slovakia
95. Milan Gábor, Slovakia
96. Lore-lei Cerqueira, South Africa
97. Jan Tredoux, South Africa
98. Leopoldo Abadia, Spain
99. Manuel Espejo, Spain
100. José María Fernandez-Bravo Álvarez, Spain
101. Luis Garcia, Spain
102. José Ignacio Herreras Espinosa, Spain
103. Antonio Lista, Spain
104. Javier Miguel Gonzalez, Spain
105. Luis Muñoz, Spain
106. Vicente Nomdedeu, Spain
107. gert-jan mathijs oepkes, Spain
108. Ricardo Pascual Iglesias, Spain
109. Pedro Reche, Spain
110. Elena Simó, Spain
111. INGE BJART Torkildsen, Spain
112. Carlos Urrutia Nebreda, Spain
113. Zhamuel Boij, Sweden
114. Erika Brandt, Sweden
115. Janos Vrbata, Switzerland
116. Peter Pop, United Arab Emirates
117. Gordon Ballantyne, United Kingdom
118. Keith Brown, United Kingdom
119. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin, United Kingdom
120. Aidan Condie, United Kingdom
121. Michael Davies, United Kingdom
122. Ruth Ferguson, United Kingdom
123. Patrick Fossett, United Kingdom
124. Michael Gilding, United Kingdom
125. Kenneth Gorman, United Kingdom
126. Solomon Green, United Kingdom
127. Martin Haywood-Samuel, United Kingdom
128. John Howes, United Kingdom
129. Toni Ives, United Kingdom
130. Bryan Johnston, United Kingdom
131. Bethany Jukes, United Kingdom
132. Howard Koolman, United Kingdom
133. Andrew Mackay, United Kingdom
134. George Magklaras, United Kingdom
135. RICHARD Maguire, United Kingdom
136. David Martin, United Kingdom
137. Gerrard Mccluskey, United Kingdom
138. Stephen J. Medlock, United Kingdom
139. Hilary Muggridge, United Kingdom
140. Robert Nellist, United Kingdom
141. andrea pearson, United Kingdom
142. Stephen Peliza, United Kingdom
143. Vela Rasarathnam, United Kingdom
144. Yvonne Ross, United Kingdom
145. Leo Rutherford, United Kingdom
146. Catherine Shipley, United Kingdom
147. Angie Stone, United Kingdom
148. Charles Tannett, United Kingdom
149. Desmond Thompson, United Kingdom
150. Neil Wilkes, United Kingdom
151. D. Williams, United Kingdom
152. Nigel Wilson, United Kingdom
153. Greg Abell, United States of America
154. Paul Allyn, United States of America
155. Roger Ayotte, United States of America
156. Michele Baxter, United States of America
157. Richard Bay, United States of America
158. Carl Beels, United States of America
159. Charles Bellavia, United States of America
160. Thomas Bingel, United States of America
161. Mark Brody, United States of America
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163. Sue A. Brown, United States of America
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165. Janice Bryson, United States of America
166. Kevin Burger, United States of America
167. John Byrne, United States of America
168. Jeff Campbell, United States of America
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170. Pamela Cornelius, United States of America
171. Charley Cropley, United States of America
172. Jeff Davison, United States of America
173. Grant Dixon, United States of America
174. JOHN DOLEMAN, United States of America
175. William Dondarski, United States of America
176. Benn Dover, United States of America
177. Vincent A. Ettari, United States of America
178. David Fair, United States of America
179. Jonathan Frishberg, United States of America
180. Bernardo Garza, United States of America
181. Christine Goodwin, United States of America
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183. Shelley Graham, United States of America
184. Donny Griffin, United States of America
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188. Harvey Hnatiuk, United States of America
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190. Timothy Kearney, United States of America
191. Marvin Langston, United States of America
192. Ted Laskaris, United States of America
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