There is No Climate Emergency,
a Message to the People

See pdf here

Guus Berkhout, President of Clintel

In the past decades the public has been flooded with fear-mongering stories, telling them that global temperatures will rise to catastrophically high levels.

Climate activists claim that the cause of all this impending doom is the increasing amount of CO2 produced by human activities. The proposed solution is the so-called net-zero emission policy, aimed at lowering human net CO2-emissions to the levels of the pre-industrial era of the late 1700s.

Those activists also claim that people should panic, and that time is running out: “Be aware that it is five minutes to midnight, we must act without delay!” Many thousands of scientists disagree;

Already

1931

are Clintel signatories.

Antonio Guterres, big boss of the UN

Greta Thunberg, teen climate activist

In his numerous ‘last warning’ speeches, Antonio Guterres refers to computer simulations, not the real world. Greta Thunberg testified to the US Congress that there was ‘no science’ behind her ‘panic’ comment.  This info cannot be found in the media.

So why is there such a big difference between the scaring climate activists’ narrative and the optimistic climate scientists’ message, who believe there is no climate emergency? Please, before you continue reading, watch our message: Consensus meet CLINTEL

Not many citizens are aware that all the frightening climate predictions have been generated by computer models. And we know from experience in many other complex areas, how misleading computer models can be.

For example, think of the many wrong predictions by economic models or think of the large mistakes in recent pandemic modeling. The output of computer models depends fully on the assumptions that modelmakers put into them. In the past 50 years, the predictions of climate models about global warming and their dire effects have all been wrong. In the engineering community, they would be qualified as useless.

More specifically, the assumptions in climate modeling are such that predicted temperature changes turn out to be persistently too high. Even worse, extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, hurricanes etc. – are intentionally used to support the extreme climate predictions. But if we position the current extreme weather events in a historical context, we see that these events are ‘climate business as usual’. See Goklany, 2020.

The conclusion is that models (computer simulations) run ‘too hot’ and that predictions of adverse effects on humans are highly dubious. They project a catastrophic future that is not born out by observations. It is much wiser and safer to rely on measurements. The history of science tells us that significant steps forward are always fueled by observations from new measurement instruments.

Think of the very recent spectacular images of outer space by the new James Webb Space Telescope. The same good news applies to the modern satellites that deliver high-quality measurements around the Earth since 1979. Satellite data shows NO extreme warming, and this is cross-checked by millions of weather balloon measurements.

Therefore, let us make use of the abundant temperature measurements made through the years. Those from the beginning of the industrial period (1850) until the present (2020) we see in Figure 1. Measurements tell us that the temperature in 2020 is 1.1 oC higher than in 1850.

Figure 1: Global temperature curve as currently generally accepted from 1850-2020. If we extend the measurements to 2050, we see that the temperature is 1.6 oC higher than in 1850 (‘X-warming’).

Using Figure 1, let us extrapolate the satellite temperatures to the year 2050 by assuming that the temperature increase of the past 40 years (1980-2020) will carry on without any pausing and cooling. This generous projection results in a 2050-temperature that is 1.6oC higher than in 1850. Now, here is the big question: ‘Is the global warming of 1.6oC a scary result? Does this outcome really tell us that it is ‘five minutes to midnight’?

Let us look at today’s difference in mean temperature between Oslo (one of the big cities near the North Pole) and Singapore (one of the big cities near the Equator), see Figure 2. Measurements show that the difference is as much as 22oC, twenty times bigger than the global warming between 1850 and 2020 and almost 14 times bigger than the so-called ‘scary’ global warming between 1850 and 2050.

Despite of this huge mean temperature difference of 22oC, both cities are very prosperous and the citizens in both cities are enjoying life. So, why do the media tell us that a global warming of 1.6oC or more will lead to a disaster (“the end is near”), while 22oC difference between Oslo and Singapore turns out to be no problem whatsoever?

Figure 2: Global mean temperature from 1850-2050, together with the average temperature of the prospering cities Oslo and Singapore in 2020. Note that the global warming of 1.6 °C is marginal with respect to the difference of 22 °C between the two cities (almost factor 14)

The answer is adaptation! Mankind shows an impressive history, having survived many big changes in its living environment, including big changes in the Earth’s climate. Thanks to our ingenuity, human beings have always found clever solutions to cope with all past challenges, again and again. If you visit Oslo and Singapore, you see an impressive demonstration of human’s capability to adapt to climate differences of 22oC.

There is another interesting observation to make. Gradual global warming is not a serious problem, whether it is caused by CO2 or not. Not mitigation but adaptation is the solution. So, for all of those who would like to think that the present global warming is fully caused by CO2, our conclusion stays unchanged.

Bear in mind that during the cooling period around 1900 and the temperature pause in the sixties (see Figure 1), the CO2-concentration in the atmosphere continued to increase without delay. Hence, the anomalous temperature behavior in these two periods were indisputably caused by mother nature. The same applies for the large climate difference between Oslo and Singapore.

Finally, for those who still believe that CO2-emissions are pollution, we urge you to remember that CO2 is essential for all life on Earth. Additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global biomass. It is also very favorable for agriculture, increasing crop yields worldwide.

If also this fact of life isn’t sufficiently convincing, please realize that with the availability of modern nuclear power plants we have ample time to create a global energy system with largely zero emission. But again, the big question is whether zero emission is a sensible goal.

In conclusion, don’t let the terrifying stories of supranational institutions – such as the UN, EU and WEF – scare you. Particularly, climate alarmists must not use extreme weather events to poison our children with fear:

The gradual global warming, which started around 1700 after the end of the Little Ice Age, is a fact and has not caused any serious problem. Our advice is: “Enjoy today’s climate, because stories from the Little Ice Age tell us that a cold climate is full of hardship”.

If we continue to invest in innovation, mankind can easily cope with any effect of further warming. Hence, we must stop the demoralizing back-to-the-past mitigation solutions. We observe that it only leads to decline and poverty.

Instead, we must focus on the power of adaptation, based on science, technology, and education. It will lead us into an era of prosperity for nature and mankind. Please, join our journey!

 

Climate related deaths (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined precipitously because richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths and swamp any potential climate signal.

Thirty years of climate summits have had no discernible effect on the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These summits cost an enormous amount of money. Money which can be better spent on adaptation measures.

Guus Berkhout is emeritus-professor of geophysics, member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)

SUPPORTERS WCD

  1. 1. Mario Marquinez Otálora, Argentina
    2. Tim Davidson, Australia
    3. Craig Davis, Australia
    4. David Graham, Australia
    5. Anthony Grigor-Scott, Australia
    6. Paul Hamilton, Australia
    7. Alan Kennett, Australia
    8. Nicholas Loades, Australia
    9. James Longfield, Australia
    10. Nuraini Magnusson, Australia
    11. Matthew Moyes, Australia
    12. Patrick O’Meley, Australia
    13. Tom Polich, Australia
    14. Ian Storey, Australia
    15. Lynette Sunderland, Australia
    16. Ingvar Warnholtz, Australia
    17. Gerhard Ing. Lassnig, Austria
    18. Karin E.J. Kolland, Austria
    19. Franz Promock, Austria
    20. Sebastien Calebout, Belgium
    21. Bart Decroix, Belgium
    22. Jelle D’Helft, Belgium
    23. Mieke Franquet, Belgium
    24. Luc Pintens, Belgium
    25. Aldo Fabre, Brazil
    26. Francisco Mendes Moraes, Brazil
    27. Marcelo Nepomuceno Carius, Brazil
    28. Leif Andersen, Canada
    29. Darren Becker, Canada
    30. Patricia Bowman, Canada
    31. Ivanna Broesky, Canada
    32. Robert Daye, Canada
    33. Wade Doucette, Canada
    34. Craig Horner, Canada
    35. Dwight Jones, Canada
    36. Leslie Keighan, Canada
    37. Kerstin Kelly, Canada
    38. Howard Phelan, Canada
    39. Derwyn Ross, Canada
    40. Florentina Silianu, Canada41. Dr Howard Tenenbaum, Canada
    42. Lyndon Trombley, Canada
    43. Greg Urton, Canada
    44. Alex Abumohor, Chile
    45. Enrique Casanovas, Chile
    46. René Hurtado, Chile
    47. Jonothan Keir Sims, China
    48. Charles Hope, Cyprus
    49. Radek Kveton, Czech Republic
    50. Daniel Markvart, Czech Republic
    51. Jiri Strachota, Czech Republic
    52. Kaspar Bonde Eriksen, Denmark
    53. Hugh Sharman, Denmark
    54. Juhani Anttila, Finland
    55. Ricol Fabien, France
    56. Pascal Frèches, France
    57. Natasha O Shaughnessy, France
    58. Lucien Oulahbib, France
    59. Peter Taylor, France
    60. Noirtault Thierry, France
    61. Achim Benoit, Germany
    62. Christian Bickeböller, Germany
    63. José de la Iglesia, Germany
    64. Nikolai Dick, Germany
    65. Adelbert Herzog, Germany
    66. Christopher Hesse, Germany
    67. Bernhard Kleinhenz, Germany
    68. Lynda Matschke, Germany
    69. Kiana Meier-Friedhoff, Germany
    70. Manfred Patzwahl, Germany
    71. Rafael Sterzer, Germany
    72. Christoph Wallner, Germany
    73. Lutz Weber, Germany
    74. Michael Wegener, Germany
    75. Christian Ziep, Germany
    76. George Zikos, Greece
    77. Bence Gabor Peter, Hungary
    78. Pandu Wisaksono, Indonesia
    79. Roger Eldridge, Ireland
    80. Terry O Sullivan, Ireland
    81. Rabbi Gabriel Cousens MD, Israel
    82. Giorgio Caprile, Italy
    83. Massimiliano Diodati, Italy
    84. Laura Fanfani, Italy

    85. Claudio Antonio Lucchesi, Italy
    86. Maurizio Tambani, Italy
    87. Vincenzo Trainito, Italy
    88. Giancarlo Troiani, Italy
    89. Giorgio Vismara, Italy
    90. Mikhail Boreyko, Kazakhstan
    91. Carlo Besenius, Luxembourg
    92. Paul Andersson, Netherlands
    93. Ado Bloemendal, Netherlands
    94. Paul Claes, Netherlands
    95. Willem Hageman, Netherlands
    96. Rene Houthoff, Netherlands
    97. Dick Kraaijenbrink, Netherlands
    98. Paul Markus, Netherlands
    99. Tom Pieterse, Netherlands
    100. Sandro Stoffers, Netherlands
    101. Peter Venema, Netherlands
    102. Duncan Christie, New Zealand
    103. Bruce C Collings, New Zealand
    104. Jesper Siegfried Enerstvedt, Norway
    105. Nina Jonsson, Norway
    106. Vivi-Ann Sandnes, Norway
    107. Haavard Skjaervik, Norway
    108. Svein Olav Stormark, Norway
    109. Juan Lazo, Peru
    110. Jose Tapia, Peru
    111. Alain Charles Veloso, Philippines
    112. Pablo de la Fuente de Pablo, Poland
    113. Szymon Głąbski, Poland
    114. Marek Langalis, Poland
    115. Rui Abreu, Portugal
    116. Flavio Barbara, Portugal
    117. Alexander Rodriguez, Singapore
    118. Milos Dian, Slovakia
    119. Milan Gábor, Slovakia
    120. Lore-lei Cerqueira, South Africa
    121. Jan Tredoux, South Africa
    122. Leopoldo Abadia, Spain
    123. Manuel Espejo, Spain
    124. José María Fernandez-Bravo Álvarez, Spain
    125. Luis Garcia, Spain
    126. José Ignacio Herreras Espinosa, Spain
    127. Antonio Lista, Spain
    128. Jorge López Pollo, Spain

    129. Javier Miguel Gonzalez, Spain
    130. Luis Muñoz, Spain
    131. Vicente Nomdedeu, Spain
    132. Gert-jan Mathijs Oepkes, Spain
    133. Ricardo Pascual Iglesias, Spain
    134. Pedro Reche, Spain
    135. Elena Simó, Spain
    136. Inge Bjart Torkildsen, Spain
    137. Carlos Urrutia Nebreda, Spain
    138. Zhamuel Boij, Sweden
    139. Erika Brandt, Sweden
    140. Lars-Olof Ödlund, Sweden
    141. Janos Vrbata, Switzerland
    142. Peter Pop, United Arab Emirates
    143. Gordon Ballantyne, United Kingdom
    144. Keith Brown, United Kingdom
    145. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin, United Kingdom
    146. Aidan Condie, United Kingdom
    147. Robert DABLE, United Kingdom
    148. Michael Davies, United Kingdom
    149. Ruth Ferguson, United Kingdom
    150. Patrick Fossett, United Kingdom
    151. Michael Gilding, United Kingdom
    152. Kenneth Gorman, United Kingdom
    153. Solomon Green, United Kingdom
    154. William Hawkins, United Kingdom
    155. Martin Haywood-Samuel, United Kingdom
    156. John Howes, United Kingdom
    157. Toni Ives, United Kingdom
    158. Bryan Johnston, United Kingdom
    159. David Johnstone, United Kingdom
    160. Bethany Jukes, United Kingdom
    161. Howard Koolman, United Kingdom
    162. Nigel Lawrence, United Kingdom
    163. Andrew Mackay, United Kingdom
    164. George Magklaras, United Kingdom
    165. Richard Maguire, United Kingdom
    166. David Martin, United Kingdom
    167. Stuart McCarthy, United Kingdom
    168. Gerrard Mccluskey, United Kingdom
    169. Stephen J. Medlock, United Kingdom
    170. Hilary Muggridge, United Kingdom
    171. Robert Nellist, United Kingdom
    172. Andrea Pearson, United Kingdom

    173. Robert Peddar-Adams, United Kingdom
    174. Stephen Peliza, United Kingdom
    175. Vela Rasarathnam, United Kingdom
    176. Yvonne Ross, United Kingdom
    177. Leo Rutherford, United Kingdom
    178. Catherine Shipley, United Kingdom
    179. Angie Stone, United Kingdom
    180. Charles Tannett, United Kingdom
    181. Desmond Thompson, United Kingdom
    182. Neil Wilkes, United Kingdom
    183. D. Williams, United Kingdom
    184. Nigel Wilson, United Kingdom
    185. Greg Abell, United States of America
    186. Paul Allyn, United States of America
    187. Roger Ayotte, United States of America
    188. Michele Baxter, United States of America
    189. Richard Bay, United States of America
    190. Carl Beels, United States of America
    191. Charles Bellavia, United States of America
    192. Thomas Bingel, United States of America
    193. Mark Brody, United States of America
    194. Robert Broe, United States of America
    195. Sue A. Brown, United States of America
    196. Craig Brueckman, United States of America
    197. Janice Bryson, United States of America
    198. Kevin Burger, United States of America
    199. John Byrne, United States of America
    200. Jeff Campbell, United States of America
    201. Joseph Chiaro, United States of America
    202. David Cornberg, United States of America
    203. Pamela Cornelius, United States of America
    204. Charley Cropley, United States of America
    205. Espen Dahlen, United States of America
    206. Jeff Davison, United States of America
    207. Grant Dixon, United States of America
    208. John Doleman, United States of America
    209. William Dondarski, United States of America
    210. Benn Dover, United States of America
    211. Vincent A. Ettari, United States of America
    212. David Fair, United States of America
    213. Jonathan Frishberg, United States of America
    214. Bernardo Garza, United States of America
    215. Christine Goodwin, United States of America
    216. Robert Gorgone, United States of America

    217. Gio Batta Gori, United States of America
    218. Shelley Graham, United States of America
    219. Donny Griffin, United States of America
    220. Frans Hager, United States of America
    221. John Halbur, United States of America
    222. Curt Hanson, United States of America
    223. Michael Hartman, United States of America
    224. Harvey Hnatiuk, United States of America
    225. David Houghland MD, United States of America
    226. David Jaskierny, United States of America
    227. Michael Jones, United States of America
    228. Timothy Kearney, United States of America
    229. Marvin Langston, United States of America
    230. Stephen Larbig, United States of America
    231. Ted Laskaris, United States of America
    232. Robert R. Lerma, United States of America
    233. John Lovett, United States of America
    234. Robert McCarter, United States of America
    235. James McGough, United States of America
    236. Linda Mckenzie, United States of America
    237. Aaron McKissack, United States of America
    238. Geoffrey McNiven, United States of America
    239. Pamela Mcvicar, United States of America
    240. Jim Medlar, United States of America
    241. Ed Meyer, United States of America
    242. William Moye, United States of America
    243. Maurice Murphy, United States of America
    244. Kimon Nicolaides, United States of America
    245. Arnold Nordeng, United States of America
    246. Naomi Nye, United States of America
    247. Jeffery Osborn, United States of America
    248. Judith Osterman, United States of America
    249. John Pearrow, United States of America
    250. Bernard Raad, United States of America
    251. Phyllis Rampulla, United States of America
    252. Miriano “Max” Ravazzolo, United States of America
    253. James Rice, United States of America
    254. Anita Roche, United States of America
    255. Al Rogers, United States of America
    256. Charles G. Sandell DMD, United States of America
    257. Ed Sebesta, United States of America
    258. Marina Shea, United States of America
    259. Roy Shockey, United States of America
    260. Deborah Simpkins, United States of America

    261. Christopher Snyder, United States of America
    262. James Spence MD FACP FCCP, United States of America
    263. Richard F. Storm, United States of America
    264. Tatiana Sugar, United States of America
    265. Doug Swartout, United States of America
    266. Ronald Tarbutton, United States of America
    267. Don Thompson, United States of America
    268. Jeffrey Tschida, United States of America
    269. Peter Ulasien, United States of America
    270. Ronald Ulrich, United States of America
    271. Gary L. Wade, United States of America
    272. James Waldo, United States of America
    273. Glenn Weckel, United States of America
    274. William Wharton, United States of America
    275. Stacy Wick, United States of America
    276. James Colin Wright, United States of America