There is No Climate Emergency,
a Message to the People

See pdf here

Guus Berkhout, President of Clintel

In the past decades the public has been flooded with fear-mongering stories, telling them that global temperatures will rise to catastrophically high levels.

Climate activists claim that the cause of all this impending doom is the increasing amount of CO₂ produced by human activities. The proposed solution is the so-called net-zero emission policy, aimed at lowering human net CO₂-emissions to the levels of the pre-industrial era of the late 1700s.

Those activists also claim that people should panic, and that time is running out: “Be aware that it is five minutes to midnight, we must act without delay!” Many thousands of scientists disagree;

Already

1917

are Clintel signatories.

In his numerous ‘last warning’ speeches, Antonio Guterres refers to computer simulations, not the real world. Greta Thunberg testified to the US Congress that there was ‘no science’ behind her ‘panic’ comment.  This info cannot be found in the media.

So why is there such a big difference between the scaring climate activists’ narrative and the optimistic climate scientists’ message, who believe there is no climate emergency? Please, before you continue reading, watch our message: Consensus meet CLINTEL

Not many citizens are aware that all the frightening climate predictions have been generated by computer models. And we know from experience in many other complex areas, how misleading computer models can be.

For example, think of the many wrong predictions by economic models or think of the large mistakes in recent pandemic modeling. The output of computer models depends fully on the assumptions that modelmakers put into them. In the past 50 years, the predictions of climate models about global warming and their dire effects have all been wrong. In the engineering community, they would be qualified as useless.

More specifically, the assumptions in climate modeling are such that predicted temperature changes turn out to be persistently too high. Even worse, extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, hurricanes etc. – are intentionally used to support the extreme climate predictions. But if we position the current extreme weather events in a historical context, we see that these events are ‘climate business as usual’. See Goklany, 2020.

The conclusion is that models (computer simulations) run ‘too hot’ and that predictions of adverse effects on humans are highly dubious. They project a catastrophic future that is not born out by observations. It is much wiser and safer to rely on measurements. The history of science tells us that significant steps forward are always fueled by observations from new measurement instruments.

Think of the very recent spectacular images of outer space by the new James Webb Space Telescope. The same good news applies to the modern satellites that deliver high-quality measurements around the Earth since 1979. Satellite data shows NO extreme warming, and this is cross-checked by millions of weather balloon measurements.

Therefore, let us make use of the abundant temperature measurements made through the years. Those from the beginning of the industrial period (1850) until the present (2020) we see in Figure 1. Measurements tell us that the temperature in 2020 is 1.1 ^oC higher than in 1850.

Figure 1: Global temperature curve as currently generally accepted from 1850-2020. If we extend the measurements to 2050, we see that the temperature is 1.6 ^oC higher than in 1850 (‘X-warming’).

Using Figure 1, let us extrapolate the satellite temperatures to the year 2050 by assuming that the temperature increase of the past 40 years (1980-2020) will carry on without any pausing and cooling. This generous projection results in a 2050-temperature that is 1.6^oC higher than in 1850. Now, here is the big question: ‘Is the global warming of 1.6^oC a scary result? Does this outcome really tell us that it is ‘five minutes to midnight’?

Let us look at today’s difference in mean temperature between Oslo (one of the big cities near the North Pole) and Singapore (one of the big cities near the Equator), see Figure 2. Measurements show that the difference is as much as 22^oC, twenty times bigger than the global warming between 1850 and 2020 and almost 14 times bigger than the so-called ‘scary’ global warming between 1850 and 2050.

Despite of this huge mean temperature difference of 22^oC, both cities are very prosperous and the citizens in both cities are enjoying life. So, why do the media tell us that a global warming of 1.6^oC or more will lead to a disaster (“the end is near”), while 22^oC difference between Oslo and Singapore turns out to be no problem whatsoever?

Figure 2: Global mean temperature from 1850-2050, together with the average temperature of the prospering cities Oslo and Singapore in 2020. Note that the global warming of 1.6 °C is marginal with respect to the difference of 22 °C between the two cities (almost factor 14)

The answer is adaptation! Mankind shows an impressive history, having survived many big changes in its living environment, including big changes in the Earth’s climate. Thanks to our ingenuity, human beings have always found clever solutions to cope with all past challenges, again and again. If you visit Oslo and Singapore, you see an impressive demonstration of human’s capability to adapt to climate differences of 22^oC.

There is another interesting observation to make. Gradual global warming is not a serious problem, whether it is caused by CO₂ or not. Not mitigation but adaptation is the solution. So, for all of those who would like to think that the present global warming is fully caused by CO₂, our conclusion stays unchanged.

Bear in mind that during the cooling period around 1900 and the temperature pause in the sixties (see Figure 1), the CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere continued to increase without delay. Hence, the anomalous temperature behavior in these two periods were indisputably caused by mother nature. The same applies for the large climate difference between Oslo and Singapore.

Finally, for those who still believe that CO₂-emissions are pollution, we urge you to remember that CO₂ is essential for all life on Earth. Additional CO₂ in the air has promoted growth in global biomass. It is also very favorable for agriculture, increasing crop yields worldwide.

If also this fact of life isn’t sufficiently convincing, please realize that with the availability of modern nuclear power plants we have ample time to create a global energy system with largely zero emission. But again, the big question is whether zero emission is a sensible goal.

In conclusion, don’t let the terrifying stories of supranational institutions – such as the UN, EU and WEF – scare you. Particularly, climate alarmists must not use extreme weather events to poison our children with fear:

The gradual global warming, which started around 1700 after the end of the Little Ice Age, is a fact and has not caused any serious problem. Our advice is: “Enjoy today’s climate, because stories from the Little Ice Age tell us that a cold climate is full of hardship”.

If we continue to invest in innovation, mankind can easily cope with any effect of further warming. Hence, we must stop the demoralizing back-to-the-past mitigation solutions. We observe that it only leads to decline and poverty.

Instead, we must focus on the power of adaptation, based on science, technology, and education. It will lead us into an era of prosperity for nature and mankind. Please, join our journey!

Climate related deaths (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined precipitously because richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths and swamp any potential climate signal.

Thirty years of climate summits have had no discernible effect on the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These summits cost an enormous amount of money. Money which can be better spent on adaptation measures.

Guus Berkhout is emeritus-professor of geophysics, member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)

SUPPORTERS WCD

1. Mario Marquinez Otálora, Argentina
2. Tim Davidson, Australia
3. Craig Davis, Australia
4. David Graham, Australia
5. Anthony Grigor-Scott, Australia
6. Paul Hamilton, Australia
7. Alan Kennett, Australia
8. Nicholas Loades, Australia
9. James Longfield, Australia
10. Nuraini Magnusson, Australia
11. Matthew Moyes, Australia
12. Patrick O’Meley, Australia
13. Tom Polich, Australia
14. Ian Storey, Australia
15. Lynette Sunderland, Australia
16. Ingvar Warnholtz, Australia
17. Gerhard Ing. Lassnig, Austria
18. Karin E.J. Kolland, Austria
19. Franz Promock, Austria
20. Sebastien Calebout, Belgium
21. Bart Decroix, Belgium
22. Jelle D’Helft, Belgium
23. Mieke Franquet, Belgium
24. Luc Pintens, Belgium
25. Aldo Fabre, Brazil
26. Francisco Mendes Moraes, Brazil
27. Marcelo Nepomuceno Carius, Brazil
28. Leif Andersen, Canada
29. Darren Becker, Canada
30. Patricia Bowman, Canada
31. Ivanna Broesky, Canada
32. Robert Daye, Canada
33. Wade Doucette, Canada
34. Craig Horner, Canada
35. Dwight Jones, Canada
36. Leslie Keighan, Canada
37. Kerstin Kelly, Canada
38. Howard Phelan, Canada
39. Derwyn Ross, Canada
40. Florentina Silianu, Canada
41. Dr Howard Tenenbaum, Canada
42. Lyndon Trombley, Canada
43. Greg Urton, Canada
44. Alex Abumohor, Chile
45. Enrique Casanovas, Chile
46. René Hurtado, Chile
47. Jonothan Keir Sims, China
48. Charles Hope, Cyprus
49. Radek Kveton, Czech Republic
50. Daniel Markvart, Czech Republic
51. Jiri Strachota, Czech Republic
52. Kaspar Bonde Eriksen, Denmark
53. Hugh Sharman, Denmark
54. Juhani Anttila, Finland
55. Ricol Fabien, France
56. Pascal Frèches, France
57. Lucien Oulahbib, France
58. Peter Taylor, France
59. Noirtault Thierry, France
60. Achim Benoit, Germany
61. Christian Bickeböller, Germany
62. José de la Iglesia, Germany
63. Nikolai Dick, Germany
64. Adelbert Herzog, Germany
65. Christopher Hesse, Germany
66. Bernhard Kleinhenz, Germany
67. Lynda Matschke, Germany
68. Kiana Meier-Friedhoff, Germany
69. Manfred Patzwahl, Germany
70. Rafael Sterzer, Germany
71. Christoph Wallner, Germany
72. Michael Wegener, Germany
73. Christian Ziep, Germany
74. George Zikos, Greece
75. Bence Gabor Peter, Hungary
76. Pandu Wisaksono, Indonesia
77. Roger Eldridge, Ireland
78. Terry O Sullivan, Ireland
79. Rabbi Gabriel Cousens MD, Israel
80. Giorgio Caprile, Italy
81. Massimiliano Diodati, Italy
82. Laura Fanfani, Italy
83. Claudio Antonio Lucchesi, Italy
84. Maurizio Tambani, Italy
85. Vincenzo Trainito, Italy
86. Giancarlo Troiani, Italy
87. Giorgio Vismara, Italy
88. Mikhail Boreyko, Kazakhstan
89. Carlo Besenius, Luxembourg
90. Paul Andersson, Netherlands
91. Ado Bloemendal, Netherlands
92. Paul Claes, Netherlands
93. Willem Hageman, Netherlands
94. Rene Houthoff, Netherlands
95. Dick Kraaijenbrink, Netherlands
96. Paul Markus, Netherlands
97. Tom Pieterse, Netherlands
98. Sandro Stoffers, Netherlands
99. Peter Venema, Netherlands
100. Duncan Christie, New Zealand
101. Bruce C Collings, New Zealand
102. Jesper Siegfried Enerstvedt, Norway
103. Nina Jonsson, Norway
104. Vivi-Ann Sandnes, Norway
105. Haavard Skjaervik, Norway
106. Svein Olav Stormark, Norway
107. Juan Lazo, Peru
108. Jose Tapia, Peru
109. Alain Charles Veloso, Philippines
110. Pablo de la Fuente de Pablo, Poland
111. Szymon Głąbski, Poland
112. Marek Langalis, Poland
113. Rui Abreu, Portugal
114. Flavio Barbara, Portugal
115. Alexander Rodriguez, Singapore
116. Milos Dian, Slovakia
117. Milan Gábor, Slovakia
118. Lore-lei Cerqueira, South Africa
119. Jan Tredoux, South Africa
120. Leopoldo Abadia, Spain
121. Manuel Espejo, Spain
122. José María Fernandez-Bravo Álvarez, Spain
123. Luis Garcia, Spain
124. José Ignacio Herreras Espinosa, Spain
125. Antonio Lista, Spain
126. Jorge López Pollo, Spain
127. Javier Miguel Gonzalez, Spain
128. Luis Muñoz, Spain
129. Vicente Nomdedeu, Spain
130. Gert-jan Mathijs Oepkes, Spain
131. Ricardo Pascual Iglesias, Spain
132. Pedro Reche, Spain
133. Elena Simó, Spain
134. Inge Bjart Torkildsen, Spain
135. Carlos Urrutia Nebreda, Spain
136. Zhamuel Boij, Sweden
137. Erika Brandt, Sweden
138. Lars-Olof Ödlund, Sweden
139. Janos Vrbata, Switzerland
140. Peter Pop, United Arab Emirates
141. Gordon Ballantyne, United Kingdom
142. Keith Brown, United Kingdom
143. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin, United Kingdom
144. Aidan Condie, United Kingdom
145. Robert DABLE, United Kingdom
146. Michael Davies, United Kingdom
147. Ruth Ferguson, United Kingdom
148. Patrick Fossett, United Kingdom
149. Michael Gilding, United Kingdom
150. Kenneth Gorman, United Kingdom
151. Solomon Green, United Kingdom
152. William Hawkins, United Kingdom
153. Martin Haywood-Samuel, United Kingdom
154. John Howes, United Kingdom
155. Toni Ives, United Kingdom
156. Bryan Johnston, United Kingdom
157. David Johnstone, United Kingdom
158. Bethany Jukes, United Kingdom
159. Howard Koolman, United Kingdom
160. Nigel Lawrence, United Kingdom
161. Andrew Mackay, United Kingdom
162. George Magklaras, United Kingdom
163. Richard Maguire, United Kingdom
164. David Martin, United Kingdom
165. Stuart McCarthy, United Kingdom
166. Gerrard Mccluskey, United Kingdom
167. Stephen J. Medlock, United Kingdom
168. Hilary Muggridge, United Kingdom
169. Robert Nellist, United Kingdom
170. Andrea Pearson, United Kingdom
171. Robert Peddar-Adams, United Kingdom
172. Stephen Peliza, United Kingdom
173. Vela Rasarathnam, United Kingdom
174. Yvonne Ross, United Kingdom
175. Leo Rutherford, United Kingdom
176. Catherine Shipley, United Kingdom
177. Angie Stone, United Kingdom
178. Charles Tannett, United Kingdom
179. Desmond Thompson, United Kingdom
180. Neil Wilkes, United Kingdom
181. D. Williams, United Kingdom
182. Nigel Wilson, United Kingdom
183. Greg Abell, United States of America
184. Paul Allyn, United States of America
185. Roger Ayotte, United States of America
186. Michele Baxter, United States of America
187. Richard Bay, United States of America
188. Carl Beels, United States of America
189. Charles Bellavia, United States of America
190. Thomas Bingel, United States of America
191. Mark Brody, United States of America
192. Robert Broe, United States of America
193. Sue A. Brown, United States of America
194. Craig Brueckman, United States of America
195. Janice Bryson, United States of America
196. Kevin Burger, United States of America
197. John Byrne, United States of America
198. Jeff Campbell, United States of America
199. Joseph Chiaro, United States of America
200. David Cornberg, United States of America
201. Pamela Cornelius, United States of America
202. Charley Cropley, United States of America
203. Espen Dahlen, United States of America
204. Jeff Davison, United States of America
205. Grant Dixon, United States of America
206. John Doleman, United States of America
207. William Dondarski, United States of America
208. Benn Dover, United States of America
209. Vincent A. Ettari, United States of America
210. David Fair, United States of America
211. Jonathan Frishberg, United States of America
212. Bernardo Garza, United States of America
213. Christine Goodwin, United States of America
214. Robert Gorgone, United States of America
215. Gio Batta Gori, United States of America
216. Shelley Graham, United States of America
217. Donny Griffin, United States of America
218. Frans Hager, United States of America
219. John Halbur, United States of America
220. Curt Hanson, United States of America
221. Michael Hartman, United States of America
222. Harvey Hnatiuk, United States of America
223. David Houghland MD, United States of America
224. Michael Jones, United States of America
225. Timothy Kearney, United States of America
226. Marvin Langston, United States of America
227. Stephen Larbig, United States of America
228. Ted Laskaris, United States of America
229. Robert R. Lerma, United States of America
230. John Lovett, United States of America
231. Robert McCarter, United States of America
232. James McGough, United States of America
233. Linda Mckenzie, United States of America
234. Aaron McKissack, United States of America
235. Geoffrey McNiven, United States of America
236. Pamela Mcvicar, United States of America
237. Jim Medlar, United States of America
238. Ed Meyer, United States of America
239. William Moye, United States of America
240. Maurice Murphy, United States of America
241. Kimon Nicolaides, United States of America
242. Arnold Nordeng, United States of America
243. Naomi Nye, United States of America
244. Jeffery Osborn, United States of America
245. Judith Osterman, United States of America
246. John Pearrow, United States of America
247. Bernard Raad, United States of America
248. Phyllis Rampulla, United States of America
249. Miriano “Max” Ravazzolo, United States of America
250. James Rice, United States of America
251. Anita Roche, United States of America
252. Al Rogers, United States of America
253. Charles G. Sandell DMD, United States of America
254. Ed Sebesta, United States of America
255. Marina Shea, United States of America
256. Roy Shockey, United States of America
257. Deborah Simpkins, United States of America
258. Christopher Snyder, United States of America
259. James Spence MD FACP FCCP, United States of America
260. Richard F. Storm, United States of America
261. Tatiana Sugar, United States of America
262. Doug Swartout, United States of America
263. Ronald Tarbutton, United States of America
264. Don Thompson, United States of America
265. Jeffrey Tschida, United States of America
266. Peter Ulasien, United States of America
267. Ronald Ulrich, United States of America
268. Gary L. Wade, United States of America
269. James Waldo, United States of America
270. Glenn Weckel, United States of America
271. William Wharton, United States of America
272. Stacy Wick, United States of America
273. James Colin Wright, United States of America