There is No Climate Emergency,
a Message to the People

See pdf here

Guus Berkhout, President of Clintel

In the past decades the public has been flooded with fear-mongering stories, telling them that global temperatures will rise to catastrophically high levels.

Climate activists claim that the cause of all this impending doom is the increasing amount of CO2 produced by human activities. The proposed solution is the so-called net-zero emission policy, aimed at lowering human net CO2-emissions to the levels of the pre-industrial era of the late 1700s.

Those activists also claim that people should panic, and that time is running out: “Be aware that it is five minutes to midnight, we must act without delay!” Many thousands of scientists disagree;

Already

1897

are Clintel signatories.

Antonio Guterres, big boss of the UN

Greta Thunberg, teen climate activist

In his numerous ‘last warning’ speeches, Antonio Guterres refers to computer simulations, not the real world. Greta Thunberg testified to the US Congress that there was ‘no science’ behind her ‘panic’ comment.  This info cannot be found in the media.

So why is there such a big difference between the scaring climate activists’ narrative and the optimistic climate scientists’ message, who believe there is no climate emergency? Please, before you continue reading, watch our message: Consensus meet CLINTEL

Not many citizens are aware that all the frightening climate predictions have been generated by computer models. And we know from experience in many other complex areas, how misleading computer models can be.

For example, think of the many wrong predictions by economic models or think of the large mistakes in recent pandemic modeling. The output of computer models depends fully on the assumptions that modelmakers put into them. In the past 50 years, the predictions of climate models about global warming and their dire effects have all been wrong. In the engineering community, they would be qualified as useless.

More specifically, the assumptions in climate modeling are such that predicted temperature changes turn out to be persistently too high. Even worse, extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, hurricanes etc. – are intentionally used to support the extreme climate predictions. But if we position the current extreme weather events in a historical context, we see that these events are ‘climate business as usual’. See Goklany, 2020.

The conclusion is that models (computer simulations) run ‘too hot’ and that predictions of adverse effects on humans are highly dubious. They project a catastrophic future that is not born out by observations. It is much wiser and safer to rely on measurements. The history of science tells us that significant steps forward are always fueled by observations from new measurement instruments.

Think of the very recent spectacular images of outer space by the new James Webb Space Telescope. The same good news applies to the modern satellites that deliver high-quality measurements around the Earth since 1979. Satellite data shows NO extreme warming, and this is cross-checked by millions of weather balloon measurements.

Therefore, let us make use of the abundant temperature measurements made through the years. Those from the beginning of the industrial period (1850) until the present (2020) we see in Figure 1. Measurements tell us that the temperature in 2020 is 1.1 oC higher than in 1850.

Figure 1: Global temperature curve as currently generally accepted from 1850-2020. If we extend the measurements to 2050, we see that the temperature is 1.6 oC higher than in 1850 (‘X-warming’).

Using Figure 1, let us extrapolate the satellite temperatures to the year 2050 by assuming that the temperature increase of the past 40 years (1980-2020) will carry on without any pausing and cooling. This generous projection results in a 2050-temperature that is 1.6oC higher than in 1850. Now, here is the big question: ‘Is the global warming of 1.6oC a scary result? Does this outcome really tell us that it is ‘five minutes to midnight’?

Let us look at today’s difference in mean temperature between Oslo (one of the big cities near the North Pole) and Singapore (one of the big cities near the Equator), see Figure 2. Measurements show that the difference is as much as 22oC, twenty times bigger than the global warming between 1850 and 2020 and almost 14 times bigger than the so-called ‘scary’ global warming between 1850 and 2050.

Despite of this huge mean temperature difference of 22oC, both cities are very prosperous and the citizens in both cities are enjoying life. So, why do the media tell us that a global warming of 1.6oC or more will lead to a disaster (“the end is near”), while 22oC difference between Oslo and Singapore turns out to be no problem whatsoever?

Figure 2: Global mean temperature from 1850-2050, together with the average temperature of the prospering cities Oslo and Singapore in 2020. Note that the global warming of 1.6 °C is marginal with respect to the difference of 22 °C between the two cities (almost factor 14)

The answer is adaptation! Mankind shows an impressive history, having survived many big changes in its living environment, including big changes in the Earth’s climate. Thanks to our ingenuity, human beings have always found clever solutions to cope with all past challenges, again and again. If you visit Oslo and Singapore, you see an impressive demonstration of human’s capability to adapt to climate differences of 22oC.

There is another interesting observation to make. Gradual global warming is not a serious problem, whether it is caused by CO2 or not. Not mitigation but adaptation is the solution. So, for all of those who would like to think that the present global warming is fully caused by CO2, our conclusion stays unchanged.

Bear in mind that during the cooling period around 1900 and the temperature pause in the sixties (see Figure 1), the CO2-concentration in the atmosphere continued to increase without delay. Hence, the anomalous temperature behavior in these two periods were indisputably caused by mother nature. The same applies for the large climate difference between Oslo and Singapore.

Finally, for those who still believe that CO2-emissions are pollution, we urge you to remember that CO2 is essential for all life on Earth. Additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global biomass. It is also very favorable for agriculture, increasing crop yields worldwide.

If also this fact of life isn’t sufficiently convincing, please realize that with the availability of modern nuclear power plants we have ample time to create a global energy system with largely zero emission. But again, the big question is whether zero emission is a sensible goal.

In conclusion, don’t let the terrifying stories of supranational institutions – such as the UN, EU and WEF – scare you. Particularly, climate alarmists must not use extreme weather events to poison our children with fear:

The gradual global warming, which started around 1700 after the end of the Little Ice Age, is a fact and has not caused any serious problem. Our advice is: “Enjoy today’s climate, because stories from the Little Ice Age tell us that a cold climate is full of hardship”.

If we continue to invest in innovation, mankind can easily cope with any effect of further warming. Hence, we must stop the demoralizing back-to-the-past mitigation solutions. We observe that it only leads to decline and poverty.

Instead, we must focus on the power of adaptation, based on science, technology, and education. It will lead us into an era of prosperity for nature and mankind. Please, join our journey!

 

Climate related deaths (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined precipitously because richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths and swamp any potential climate signal.

Thirty years of climate summits have had no discernible effect on the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These summits cost an enormous amount of money. Money which can be better spent on adaptation measures.

Guus Berkhout is emeritus-professor of geophysics, member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)

SUPPORTERS WCD

1. Mario Marquinez Otálora, Argentina
2. Tim Davidson, Australia
3. Craig Davis, Australia
4. David Graham, Australia
5. Anthony Grigor-Scott, Australia
6. Paul Hamilton, Australia
7. Alan Kennett, Australia
8. Nicholas Loades, Australia
9. Nuraini Magnusson, Australia
10. Matthew Moyes, Australia
11. Patrick O’Meley, Australia
12. Tom Polich, Australia
13. Ian Storey, Australia
14. Lynette Sunderland, Australia
15. Ingvar Warnholtz, Australia
16. Gerhard Ing. Lassnig, Austria
17. Karin E.J. Kolland, Austria
18. Franz Promock, Austria
19. Sebastien Calebout, Belgium
20. Bart Decroix, Belgium
21. Jelle D’Helft, Belgium
22. Mieke Franquet, Belgium
23. Luc Pintens, Belgium
24. Aldo Fabre, Brazil
25. Francisco Mendes Moraes, Brazil
26. Marcelo Nepomuceno Carius, Brazil
27. Leif Andersen, Canada
28. Darren Becker, Canada
29. Patricia Bowman, Canada
30. Ivanna Broesky, Canada
31. Robert Daye, Canada
32. Wade Doucette, Canada
33. Craig Horner, Canada
34. Dwight Jones, Canada
35. Leslie Keighan, Canada
36. Howard Phelan, Canada
37. Derwyn Ross, Canada
38. Florentina Silianu, Canada
39. Dr Howard Tenenbaum, Canada
40. Lyndon Trombley, Canada
41. Greg Urton, Canada
42. Alex Abumohor, Chile
43. Enrique Casanovas, Chile
44. René Hurtado, Chile
45. Jonothan Keir Sims, China
46. Charles Hope, Cyprus
47. Radek Kveton, Czech Republic
48. Daniel Markvart, Czech Republic
49. Jiri Strachota, Czech Republic
50. Kaspar Bonde Eriksen, Denmark
51. Hugh Sharman, Denmark
52. Juhani Anttila, Finland
53. Ricol Fabien, France
54. Pascal Frèches, France
55. Lucien Oulahbib, France
56. Peter Taylor, France
57. Noirtault Thierry, France
58. Achim Benoit, Germany
59. Christian Bickeböller, Germany
60. José de la Iglesia, Germany
61. Nikolai Dick, Germany
62. Adelbert Herzog, Germany
63. Christopher Hesse, Germany
64. Bernhard Kleinhenz, Germany
65. Lynda Matschke, Germany
66. Kiana Meier-Friedhoff, Germany
67. Manfred Patzwahl, Germany
68. Rafael Sterzer, Germany
69. Michael Wegener, Germany
70. Georgios Zikos, Greece
71. Bence Gabor Peter, Hungary
72. Pandu Wisaksono, Indonesia
73. Roger Eldridge, Ireland
74. Terry O Sullivan, Ireland
75. Rabbi Gabriel Cousens MD, Israel
76. Giorgio Caprile, Italy
77. Massimiliano Diodati, Italy
78. Laura Fanfani, Italy
79. Claudio Antonio Lucchesi, Italy
80. Maurizio Tambani, Italy
81. Vincenzo Trainito, Italy
82. Giancarlo Troiani, Italy
83. Giorgio Vismara, Italy
84. Mikhail Boreyko, Kazakhstan
85. Carlo Besenius, Luxembourg
86. Paul Andersson, Netherlands
87. Ado Bloemendal, Netherlands
88. Paul Claes, Netherlands
89. Willem Hageman, Netherlands
90. Rene Houthoff, Netherlands
91. Dick Kraaijenbrink, Netherlands
92. Paul Markus, Netherlands
93. Tom Pieterse, Netherlands
94. Sandro Stoffers, Netherlands
95. Peter Venema, Netherlands
96. Duncan Christie, New Zealand
97. Bruce C Collings, New Zealand
98. Jesper Siegfried Enerstvedt, Norway
99. Nina Jonsson, Norway
100. Vivi-Ann Sandnes, Norway
101. Haavard Skjaervik, Norway
102. Svein Olav Stormark, Norway
103. Juan Lazo, Peru
104. Jose Tapia, Peru
105. Alain Charles Veloso, Philippines
106. Pablo de la Fuente de Pablo, Poland
107. Szymon Głąbski, Poland
108. Marek Langalis, Poland
109. Rui Abreu, Portugal
110. Flavio Barbara, Portugal
111. Alexander Rodriguez, Singapore
112. Milos Dian, Slovakia
113. Milan Gábor, Slovakia
114. Lore-lei Cerqueira, South Africa
115. Jan Tredoux, South Africa
116. Leopoldo Abadia, Spain
117. Manuel Espejo, Spain
118. José María Fernandez-Bravo Álvarez, Spain
119. Luis Garcia, Spain
120. José Ignacio Herreras Espinosa, Spain
121. Antonio Lista, Spain
122. Javier Miguel Gonzalez, Spain
123. Luis Muñoz, Spain
124. Vicente Nomdedeu, Spain
125. Gert-jan Mathijs Oepkes, Spain
126. Ricardo Pascual Iglesias, Spain
127. Pedro Reche, Spain
128. Elena Simó, Spain
129. Inge Bjart Torkildsen, Spain
130. Carlos Urrutia Nebreda, Spain
131. Zhamuel Boij, Sweden
132. Erika Brandt, Sweden
133. Lars-Olof Ödlund, Sweden
134. Janos Vrbata, Switzerland
135. Peter Pop, United Arab Emirates
136. Gordon Ballantyne, United Kingdom
137. Keith Brown, United Kingdom
138. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin, United Kingdom
139. Aidan Condie, United Kingdom
140. Robert DABLE, United Kingdom
141. Michael Davies, United Kingdom
142. Ruth Ferguson, United Kingdom
143. Patrick Fossett, United Kingdom
144. Michael Gilding, United Kingdom
145. Kenneth Gorman, United Kingdom
146. Solomon Green, United Kingdom
147. William Hawkins, United Kingdom
148. Martin Haywood-Samuel, United Kingdom
149. John Howes, United Kingdom
150. Toni Ives, United Kingdom
151. Bryan Johnston, United Kingdom
152. Bethany Jukes, United Kingdom
153. Howard Koolman, United Kingdom
154. Nigel Lawrence, United Kingdom
155. Andrew Mackay, United Kingdom
156. George Magklaras, United Kingdom
157. Richard Maguire, United Kingdom
158. David Martin, United Kingdom
159. Stuart McCarthy, United Kingdom
160. Gerrard Mccluskey, United Kingdom
161. Stephen J. Medlock, United Kingdom
162. Hilary Muggridge, United Kingdom
163. Robert Nellist, United Kingdom
164. Andrea Pearson, United Kingdom
165. Robert Peddar-Adams, United Kingdom
166. Stephen Peliza, United Kingdom
167. Vela Rasarathnam, United Kingdom
168. Yvonne Ross, United Kingdom
169. Leo Rutherford, United Kingdom
170. Catherine Shipley, United Kingdom
171. Angie Stone, United Kingdom
172. Charles Tannett, United Kingdom
173. Desmond Thompson, United Kingdom
174. Neil Wilkes, United Kingdom
175. D. Williams, United Kingdom
176. Nigel Wilson, United Kingdom
177. Greg Abell, United States of America
178. Paul Allyn, United States of America
179. Roger Ayotte, United States of America
180. Michele Baxter, United States of America
181. Richard Bay, United States of America
182. Carl Beels, United States of America
183. Charles Bellavia, United States of America
184. Thomas Bingel, United States of America
185. Mark Brody, United States of America
186. Robert Broe, United States of America
187. Sue A. Brown, United States of America
188. Craig Brueckman, United States of America
189. Janice Bryson, United States of America
190. Kevin Burger, United States of America
191. John Byrne, United States of America
192. Jeff Campbell, United States of America
193. Joseph Chiaro, United States of America
194. David Cornberg, United States of America
195. Pamela Cornelius, United States of America
196. Charley Cropley, United States of America
197. Espen Dahlen, United States of America
198. Jeff Davison, United States of America
199. Grant Dixon, United States of America
200. John Doleman, United States of America
201. William Dondarski, United States of America
202. Benn Dover, United States of America
203. Vincent A. Ettari, United States of America
204. David Fair, United States of America
205. Jonathan Frishberg, United States of America
206. Bernardo Garza, United States of America
207. Christine Goodwin, United States of America
208. Robert Gorgone, United States of America
209. Gio Batta Gori, United States of America
210. Shelley Graham, United States of America
211. Donny Griffin, United States of America
212. Frans Hager, United States of America
213. John Halbur, United States of America
214. Curt Hanson, United States of America
215. Michael Hartman, United States of America
216. Harvey Hnatiuk, United States of America
217. David Houghland MD, United States of America
218. Michael Jones, United States of America
219. Timothy Kearney, United States of America
220. Marvin Langston, United States of America
221. Stephen Larbig, United States of America
222. Ted Laskaris, United States of America
223. Robert R. Lerma, United States of America
224. John Lovett, United States of America
225. Robert McCarter, United States of America
226. James McGough, United States of America
227. Linda Mckenzie, United States of America
228. Aaron McKissack, United States of America
229. Geoffrey McNiven, United States of America
230. Pamela Mcvicar, United States of America
231. Jim Medlar, United States of America
232. Ed Meyer, United States of America
233. William Moye, United States of America
234. Maurice Murphy, United States of America
235. Kimon Nicolaides, United States of America
236. Arnold Nordeng, United States of America
237. Naomi Nye, United States of America
238. Jeffery Osborn, United States of America
239. Judith Osterman, United States of America
240. John Pearrow, United States of America
241. Bernard Raad, United States of America
242. Phyllis Rampulla, United States of America
243. Miriano “Max” Ravazzolo, United States of America
244. James Rice, United States of America
245. Anita Roche, United States of America
246. Al Rogers, United States of America
247. Charles G. Sandell DMD, United States of America
248. Ed Sebesta, United States of America
249. Marina Shea, United States of America
250. Roy Shockey, United States of America
251. Deborah Simpkins, United States of America
252. Christopher Snyder, United States of America
253. James Spence MD FACP FCCP, United States of America
254. Richard F. Storm, United States of America
255. Tatiana Sugar, United States of America
256. Doug Swartout, United States of America
257. Ronald Tarbutton, United States of America
258. Don Thompson, United States of America
259. Jeffrey Tschida, United States of America
260. Peter Ulasien, United States of America
261. Ronald Ulrich, United States of America
262. Gary L. Wade, United States of America
263. James Waldo, United States of America
264. Glenn Weckel, United States of America
265. William Wharton, United States of America
266. Stacy Wick, United States of America
267. James Colin Wright, United States of America