There is No Climate Emergency,
a Message to the People

See pdf here

Guus Berkhout, President of Clintel

In the past decades the public has been flooded with fear-mongering stories, telling them that global temperatures will rise to catastrophically high levels.

Climate activists claim that the cause of all this impending doom is the increasing amount of CO₂ produced by human activities. The proposed solution is the so-called net-zero emission policy, aimed at lowering human net CO₂-emissions to the levels of the pre-industrial era of the late 1700s.

Those activists also claim that people should panic, and that time is running out: “Be aware that it is five minutes to midnight, we must act without delay!” Many thousands of scientists disagree;

Already

1977

are Clintel signatories.

In his numerous ‘last warning’ speeches, Antonio Guterres refers to computer simulations, not the real world. Greta Thunberg testified to the US Congress that there was ‘no science’ behind her ‘panic’ comment.  This info cannot be found in the media.

So why is there such a big difference between the scaring climate activists’ narrative and the optimistic climate scientists’ message, who believe there is no climate emergency? Please, before you continue reading, watch our message: Consensus meet CLINTEL

Not many citizens are aware that all the frightening climate predictions have been generated by computer models. And we know from experience in many other complex areas, how misleading computer models can be.

For example, think of the many wrong predictions by economic models or think of the large mistakes in recent pandemic modeling. The output of computer models depends fully on the assumptions that modelmakers put into them. In the past 50 years, the predictions of climate models about global warming and their dire effects have all been wrong. In the engineering community, they would be qualified as useless.

More specifically, the assumptions in climate modeling are such that predicted temperature changes turn out to be persistently too high. Even worse, extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, hurricanes etc. – are intentionally used to support the extreme climate predictions. But if we position the current extreme weather events in a historical context, we see that these events are ‘climate business as usual’. See Goklany, 2020.

The conclusion is that models (computer simulations) run ‘too hot’ and that predictions of adverse effects on humans are highly dubious. They project a catastrophic future that is not born out by observations. It is much wiser and safer to rely on measurements. The history of science tells us that significant steps forward are always fueled by observations from new measurement instruments.

Think of the very recent spectacular images of outer space by the new James Webb Space Telescope. The same good news applies to the modern satellites that deliver high-quality measurements around the Earth since 1979. Satellite data shows NO extreme warming, and this is cross-checked by millions of weather balloon measurements.

Therefore, let us make use of the abundant temperature measurements made through the years. Those from the beginning of the industrial period (1850) until the present (2020) we see in Figure 1. Measurements tell us that the temperature in 2020 is 1.1 ^oC higher than in 1850.

Figure 1: Global temperature curve as currently generally accepted from 1850-2020. If we extend the measurements to 2050, we see that the temperature is 1.6 ^oC higher than in 1850 (‘X-warming’).

Using Figure 1, let us extrapolate the satellite temperatures to the year 2050 by assuming that the temperature increase of the past 40 years (1980-2020) will carry on without any pausing and cooling. This generous projection results in a 2050-temperature that is 1.6^oC higher than in 1850. Now, here is the big question: ‘Is the global warming of 1.6^oC a scary result? Does this outcome really tell us that it is ‘five minutes to midnight’?

Let us look at today’s difference in mean temperature between Oslo (one of the big cities near the North Pole) and Singapore (one of the big cities near the Equator), see Figure 2. Measurements show that the difference is as much as 22^oC, twenty times bigger than the global warming between 1850 and 2020 and almost 14 times bigger than the so-called ‘scary’ global warming between 1850 and 2050.

Despite of this huge mean temperature difference of 22^oC, both cities are very prosperous and the citizens in both cities are enjoying life. So, why do the media tell us that a global warming of 1.6^oC or more will lead to a disaster (“the end is near”), while 22^oC difference between Oslo and Singapore turns out to be no problem whatsoever?

Figure 2: Global mean temperature from 1850-2050, together with the average temperature of the prospering cities Oslo and Singapore in 2020. Note that the global warming of 1.6 °C is marginal with respect to the difference of 22 °C between the two cities (almost factor 14)

The answer is adaptation! Mankind shows an impressive history, having survived many big changes in its living environment, including big changes in the Earth’s climate. Thanks to our ingenuity, human beings have always found clever solutions to cope with all past challenges, again and again. If you visit Oslo and Singapore, you see an impressive demonstration of human’s capability to adapt to climate differences of 22^oC.

There is another interesting observation to make. Gradual global warming is not a serious problem, whether it is caused by CO₂ or not. Not mitigation but adaptation is the solution. So, for all of those who would like to think that the present global warming is fully caused by CO₂, our conclusion stays unchanged.

Bear in mind that during the cooling period around 1900 and the temperature pause in the sixties (see Figure 1), the CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere continued to increase without delay. Hence, the anomalous temperature behavior in these two periods were indisputably caused by mother nature. The same applies for the large climate difference between Oslo and Singapore.

Finally, for those who still believe that CO₂-emissions are pollution, we urge you to remember that CO₂ is essential for all life on Earth. Additional CO₂ in the air has promoted growth in global biomass. It is also very favorable for agriculture, increasing crop yields worldwide.

If also this fact of life isn’t sufficiently convincing, please realize that with the availability of modern nuclear power plants we have ample time to create a global energy system with largely zero emission. But again, the big question is whether zero emission is a sensible goal.

In conclusion, don’t let the terrifying stories of supranational institutions – such as the UN, EU and WEF – scare you. Particularly, climate alarmists must not use extreme weather events to poison our children with fear:

The gradual global warming, which started around 1700 after the end of the Little Ice Age, is a fact and has not caused any serious problem. Our advice is: “Enjoy today’s climate, because stories from the Little Ice Age tell us that a cold climate is full of hardship”.

If we continue to invest in innovation, mankind can easily cope with any effect of further warming. Hence, we must stop the demoralizing back-to-the-past mitigation solutions. We observe that it only leads to decline and poverty.

Instead, we must focus on the power of adaptation, based on science, technology, and education. It will lead us into an era of prosperity for nature and mankind. Please, join our journey!

Climate related deaths (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined precipitously because richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths and swamp any potential climate signal.

Thirty years of climate summits have had no discernible effect on the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These summits cost an enormous amount of money. Money which can be better spent on adaptation measures.

Guus Berkhout is emeritus-professor of geophysics, member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)

SUPPORTERS WCD

1. Mario Marquinez Otálora, Argentina
2. Emma Carlone, Australia
3. Tim Davidson, Australia
4. Craig Davis, Australia
5. Andrew Graddon, Australia
6. David Graham, Australia
7. Clemens Grieger, Australia
8. Anthony Grigor-Scott, Australia
9. Paul Hamilton, Australia
10. Alan Kennett, Australia
11. Nicholas Loades, Australia
12. James Longfield, Australia
13. Nuraini Magnusson, Australia
14. Matthew Moyes, Australia
15. Patrick O’Meley, Australia
16. Tom Polich, Australia
17. Ian Storey, Australia
18. Lynette Sunderland, Australia
19. Ingvar Warnholtz, Australia
20. Gerhard Ing. Lassnig, Austria
21. Karin E.J. Kolland, Austria
22. Franz Promock, Austria
23. Sebastien Calebout, Belgium
24. Bart Decroix, Belgium
25. Jelle D’Helft, Belgium
26. Mieke Franquet, Belgium
27. Luc Pintens, Belgium
28. João de Sousa Luz, Brazil
29. Aldo Fabre, Brazil
30. Francisco Mendes Moraes, Brazil
31. Marcelo Nepomuceno Carius, Brazil
32. Leif Andersen, Canada
33. Darren Becker, Canada
34. Patricia Bowman, Canada
35. Ivanna Broesky, Canada
36. Robert Daye, Canada
37. Wade Doucette, Canada
38. Craig Horner, Canada
39. Dwight Jones, Canada
40. Leslie Keighan, Canada

41. Kerstin Kelly, Canada
42. Stephan Larsson, Canada
43. Al Majauskas, Canada
44. Howard Phelan, Canada
45. Derwyn Ross, Canada
46. Florentina Silianu, Canada
47. Dr Howard Tenenbaum, Canada
48. Lyndon Trombley, Canada
49. Greg Urton, Canada
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51. Enrique Casanovas, Chile
52. René Hurtado, Chile
53. Jonothan Keir Sims, China
54. Andreas Christodoulides, Cyprus
55. Charles Hope, Cyprus
56. Michal Bílý, Czech Republic
57. PhDr. Leo Cuda, Czech Republic
58. Radek Kveton, Czech Republic
59. Daniel Markvart, Czech Republic
60. Jiri Strachota, Czech Republic
61. Kaspar Bonde Eriksen, Denmark
62. Hugh Sharman, Denmark
63. Juhani Anttila, Finland
64. JOSEPH Alain, France
65. Ricol Fabien, France
66. Pascal Frèches, France
67. Natasha O Shaughnessy, France
68. Lucien Oulahbib, France
69. Peter Taylor, France
70. Noirtault Thierry, France
71. Achim Benoit, Germany
72. Christian Bickeböller, Germany
73. Wilfried Boysen, Germany
74. José de la Iglesia, Germany
75. Nikolai Dick, Germany
76. Adelbert Herzog, Germany
77. Christopher Hesse, Germany
78. Bernhard Kleinhenz, Germany
79. Lynda Matschke, Germany
80. Kiana Meier-Friedhoff, Germany
81. Manfred Patzwahl, Germany
82. Rafael Sterzer, Germany
83. Christoph Wallner, Germany
84. Lutz Weber, Germany

85. Michael Wegener, Germany
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87. George Zikos, Greece
88. Bence Gabor Peter, Hungary
89. Pandu Wisaksono, Indonesia
90. Roger Eldridge, Ireland
91. Terry O Sullivan, Ireland
92. Rabbi Gabriel Cousens MD, Israel
93. Antonio Bettanini, Italy
94. Giorgio Caprile, Italy
95. Massimiliano Diodati, Italy
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97. Claudio Antonio Lucchesi, Italy
98. Graziano Murru, Italy
99. Mario Natalucci, Italy
100. Maria Psalidi, Italy
101. Domenico Salimbeni, Italy
102. Maurizio Tambani, Italy
103. Gino Attilio Timo, Italy
104. Vincenzo Trainito, Italy
105. Giancarlo Troiani, Italy
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107. Mikhail Boreyko, Kazakhstan
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109. Paul Andersson, Netherlands
110. Ado Bloemendal, Netherlands
111. Paul Claes, Netherlands
112. Willem Hageman, Netherlands
113. Rene Houthoff, Netherlands
114. Dick Kraaijenbrink, Netherlands
115. Konstantinos Letsios, Netherlands
116. Paul Markus, Netherlands
117. Tom Pieterse, Netherlands
118. Sandro Stoffers, Netherlands
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120. Duncan Christie, New Zealand
121. Bruce C Collings, New Zealand
122. Jesper Siegfried Enerstvedt, Norway
123. Nina Jonsson, Norway
124. Vivi-Ann Sandnes, Norway
125. Haavard Skjaervik, Norway
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127. Juan Lazo, Peru
128. Jose Tapia, Peru

129. Alain Charles Veloso, Philippines
130. Pablo de la Fuente de Pablo, Poland
131. Szymon Głąbski, Poland
132. Marek Langalis, Poland
133. Rui Abreu, Portugal
134. Flavio Barbara, Portugal
135. Alexander Rodriguez, Singapore
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137. Milan Gábor, Slovakia
138. Lore-lei Cerqueira, South Africa
139. Jan Tredoux, South Africa
140. Leopoldo Abadia, Spain
141. Manuel Espejo, Spain
142. José María Fernandez-Bravo Álvarez, Spain
143. Luis Garcia, Spain
144. jose Ignacio garcia Bielsa, Spain
145. José Ignacio Herreras Espinosa, Spain
146. Antonio Lista, Spain
147. Jorge López Pollo, Spain
148. Javier Miguel Gonzalez, Spain
149. Luis Muñoz, Spain
150. Vicente Nomdedeu, Spain
151. Gert-jan Mathijs Oepkes, Spain
152. Ricardo Pascual Iglesias, Spain
153. Pedro Reche, Spain
154. Elena Simó, Spain
155. Inge Bjart Torkildsen, Spain
156. Carlos Urrutia Nebreda, Spain
157. Zhamuel Boij, Sweden
158. Erika Brandt, Sweden
159. Lars-Olof Ödlund, Sweden
160. Leif Ringhagen, Sweden
161. Mikael Wollnäs, Sweden
162. Janos Vrbata, Switzerland
163. Peter Pop, United Arab Emirates
164. Gordon Ballantyne, United Kingdom
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166. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin, United Kingdom
167. Aidan Condie, United Kingdom
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169. Eugene Daniel, United Kingdom
170. Michael Davies, United Kingdom
171. Ruth Ferguson, United Kingdom
172. Patrick Fossett, United Kingdom

173. David John Fraser, United Kingdom
174. Michael Gilding, United Kingdom
175. Roland Gilmore, United Kingdom
176. Kenneth Gorman, United Kingdom
177. Solomon Green, United Kingdom
178. William Hawkins, United Kingdom
179. Martin Haywood-Samuel, United Kingdom
180. Robert Heath, United Kingdom
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183. Bryan Johnston, United Kingdom
184. David Johnstone, United Kingdom
185. Bethany Jukes, United Kingdom
186. Joseph Kavanagh, United Kingdom
187. Howard Koolman, United Kingdom
188. Nigel Lawrence, United Kingdom
189. Andrew Mackay, United Kingdom
190. George Magklaras, United Kingdom
191. Richard Maguire, United Kingdom
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193. Stuart McCarthy, United Kingdom
194. Gerrard Mccluskey, United Kingdom
195. Stephen J. Medlock, United Kingdom
196. Robin Monotti Graziadei, United Kingdom
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203. Vela Rasarathnam, United Kingdom
204. Yvonne Ross, United Kingdom
205. Leo Rutherford, United Kingdom
206. Catherine Shipley, United Kingdom
207. Nick Stedman, United Kingdom
208. Angie Stone, United Kingdom
209. Charles Tannett, United Kingdom
210. Desmond Thompson, United Kingdom
211. Ian Travers, United Kingdom
212. Jack Turnbull, United Kingdom
213. Andrew Verdon, United Kingdom
214. Neil Wilkes, United Kingdom
215. D. Williams, United Kingdom
216. Nigel Wilson, United Kingdom

217. Greg Abell, United States of America
218. Dr. James Aldrich, United States of America
219. Paul Allyn, United States of America
220. E Scott Argento, United States of America
221. Roger Ayotte, United States of America
222. Michele Baxter, United States of America
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278. William Moye, United States of America
279. Maurice Murphy, United States of America
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282. Naomi Nye, United States of America
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284. Judith Osterman, United States of America
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286. Bernard Raad, United States of America
287. Phyllis Rampulla, United States of America
288. Miriano “Max” Ravazzolo, United States of America
289. James Rice, United States of America
290. Anita Roche, United States of America
291. Al Rogers, United States of America
292. Charles G. Sandell DMD, United States of America
293. Ed Sebesta, United States of America
294. Marina Shea, United States of America
295. Roy Shockey, United States of America
296. Deborah Simpkins, United States of America
297. Christopher Snyder, United States of America
298. James Spence MD FACP FCCP, United States of America
299. Richard F. Storm, United States of America
300. Tatiana Sugar, United States of America
301. Doug Swartout, United States of America
302. Ronald Tarbutton, United States of America
303. Don Thompson, United States of America
304. Jeffrey Tschida, United States of America

305. Peter Ulasien, United States of America
306. Ronald Ulrich, United States of America
307. Russell Vogel, United States of America
308. Gary L. Wade, United States of America
309. James Waldo, United States of America
310. Glenn Weckel, United States of America
311. William Wharton, United States of America
312. Stacy Wick, United States of America
313. James Williams, United States of America
314. James Colin Wright, United States of America