There is No Climate Emergency,
a Message to the People

See pdf here

Guus Berkhout, President of Clintel

In the past decades the public has been flooded with fear-mongering stories, telling them that global temperatures will rise to catastrophically high levels.

Climate activists claim that the cause of all this impending doom is the increasing amount of CO₂ produced by human activities. The proposed solution is the so-called net-zero emission policy, aimed at lowering human net CO₂-emissions to the levels of the pre-industrial era of the late 1700s.

Those activists also claim that people should panic, and that time is running out: “Be aware that it is five minutes to midnight, we must act without delay!” Many thousands of scientists disagree;

Already

1983

are Clintel signatories.

In his numerous ‘last warning’ speeches, Antonio Guterres refers to computer simulations, not the real world. Greta Thunberg testified to the US Congress that there was ‘no science’ behind her ‘panic’ comment.  This info cannot be found in the media.

So why is there such a big difference between the scaring climate activists’ narrative and the optimistic climate scientists’ message, who believe there is no climate emergency? Please, before you continue reading, watch our message: Consensus meet CLINTEL

Not many citizens are aware that all the frightening climate predictions have been generated by computer models. And we know from experience in many other complex areas, how misleading computer models can be.

For example, think of the many wrong predictions by economic models or think of the large mistakes in recent pandemic modeling. The output of computer models depends fully on the assumptions that modelmakers put into them. In the past 50 years, the predictions of climate models about global warming and their dire effects have all been wrong. In the engineering community, they would be qualified as useless.

More specifically, the assumptions in climate modeling are such that predicted temperature changes turn out to be persistently too high. Even worse, extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, hurricanes etc. – are intentionally used to support the extreme climate predictions. But if we position the current extreme weather events in a historical context, we see that these events are ‘climate business as usual’. See Goklany, 2020.

The conclusion is that models (computer simulations) run ‘too hot’ and that predictions of adverse effects on humans are highly dubious. They project a catastrophic future that is not born out by observations. It is much wiser and safer to rely on measurements. The history of science tells us that significant steps forward are always fueled by observations from new measurement instruments.

Think of the very recent spectacular images of outer space by the new James Webb Space Telescope. The same good news applies to the modern satellites that deliver high-quality measurements around the Earth since 1979. Satellite data shows NO extreme warming, and this is cross-checked by millions of weather balloon measurements.

Therefore, let us make use of the abundant temperature measurements made through the years. Those from the beginning of the industrial period (1850) until the present (2020) we see in Figure 1. Measurements tell us that the temperature in 2020 is 1.1 ^oC higher than in 1850.

Figure 1: Global temperature curve as currently generally accepted from 1850-2020. If we extend the measurements to 2050, we see that the temperature is 1.6 ^oC higher than in 1850 (‘X-warming’).

Using Figure 1, let us extrapolate the satellite temperatures to the year 2050 by assuming that the temperature increase of the past 40 years (1980-2020) will carry on without any pausing and cooling. This generous projection results in a 2050-temperature that is 1.6^oC higher than in 1850. Now, here is the big question: ‘Is the global warming of 1.6^oC a scary result? Does this outcome really tell us that it is ‘five minutes to midnight’?

Let us look at today’s difference in mean temperature between Oslo (one of the big cities near the North Pole) and Singapore (one of the big cities near the Equator), see Figure 2. Measurements show that the difference is as much as 22^oC, twenty times bigger than the global warming between 1850 and 2020 and almost 14 times bigger than the so-called ‘scary’ global warming between 1850 and 2050.

Despite of this huge mean temperature difference of 22^oC, both cities are very prosperous and the citizens in both cities are enjoying life. So, why do the media tell us that a global warming of 1.6^oC or more will lead to a disaster (“the end is near”), while 22^oC difference between Oslo and Singapore turns out to be no problem whatsoever?

Figure 2: Global mean temperature from 1850-2050, together with the average temperature of the prospering cities Oslo and Singapore in 2020. Note that the global warming of 1.6 °C is marginal with respect to the difference of 22 °C between the two cities (almost factor 14)

The answer is adaptation! Mankind shows an impressive history, having survived many big changes in its living environment, including big changes in the Earth’s climate. Thanks to our ingenuity, human beings have always found clever solutions to cope with all past challenges, again and again. If you visit Oslo and Singapore, you see an impressive demonstration of human’s capability to adapt to climate differences of 22^oC.

There is another interesting observation to make. Gradual global warming is not a serious problem, whether it is caused by CO₂ or not. Not mitigation but adaptation is the solution. So, for all of those who would like to think that the present global warming is fully caused by CO₂, our conclusion stays unchanged.

Bear in mind that during the cooling period around 1900 and the temperature pause in the sixties (see Figure 1), the CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere continued to increase without delay. Hence, the anomalous temperature behavior in these two periods were indisputably caused by mother nature. The same applies for the large climate difference between Oslo and Singapore.

Finally, for those who still believe that CO₂-emissions are pollution, we urge you to remember that CO₂ is essential for all life on Earth. Additional CO₂ in the air has promoted growth in global biomass. It is also very favorable for agriculture, increasing crop yields worldwide.

If also this fact of life isn’t sufficiently convincing, please realize that with the availability of modern nuclear power plants we have ample time to create a global energy system with largely zero emission. But again, the big question is whether zero emission is a sensible goal.

In conclusion, don’t let the terrifying stories of supranational institutions – such as the UN, EU and WEF – scare you. Particularly, climate alarmists must not use extreme weather events to poison our children with fear:

The gradual global warming, which started around 1700 after the end of the Little Ice Age, is a fact and has not caused any serious problem. Our advice is: “Enjoy today’s climate, because stories from the Little Ice Age tell us that a cold climate is full of hardship”.

If we continue to invest in innovation, mankind can easily cope with any effect of further warming. Hence, we must stop the demoralizing back-to-the-past mitigation solutions. We observe that it only leads to decline and poverty.

Instead, we must focus on the power of adaptation, based on science, technology, and education. It will lead us into an era of prosperity for nature and mankind. Please, join our journey!

Climate related deaths (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined precipitously because richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths and swamp any potential climate signal.

Thirty years of climate summits have had no discernible effect on the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These summits cost an enormous amount of money. Money which can be better spent on adaptation measures.

Guus Berkhout is emeritus-professor of geophysics, member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)

SUPPORTERS WCD

1. Mario Marquinez Otálora, Argentina
2. Emma Carlone, Australia
3. Tim Davidson, Australia
4. Craig Davis, Australia
5. Andrew Graddon, Australia
6. David Graham, Australia
7. Clemens Grieger, Australia
8. Anthony Grigor-Scott, Australia
9. Paul Hamilton, Australia
10. Alan Kennett, Australia
11. Nicholas Loades, Australia
12. James Longfield, Australia
13. Nuraini Magnusson, Australia
14. Matthew Moyes, Australia
15. Patrick O’Meley, Australia
16. Tom Polich, Australia
17. Ian Storey, Australia
18. Lynette Sunderland, Australia
19. Ingvar Warnholtz, Australia
20. Gerhard Ing. Lassnig, Austria
21. Karin E.J. Kolland, Austria
22. Franz Promock, Austria
23. Sebastien Calebout, Belgium
24. Bart Decroix, Belgium
25. Jelle D’Helft, Belgium
26. Mieke Franquet, Belgium
27. Luc Pintens, Belgium
28. João de Sousa Luz, Brazil
29. Aldo Fabre, Brazil
30. Francisco Mendes Moraes, Brazil
31. Marcelo Nepomuceno Carius, Brazil
32. Leif Andersen, Canada
33. Darren Becker, Canada
34. Patricia Bowman, Canada
35. Ivanna Broesky, Canada
36. Robert Daye, Canada
37. Wade Doucette, Canada
38. Craig Horner, Canada
39. Dwight Jones, Canada
40. Leslie Keighan, Canada

41. Kerstin Kelly, Canada
42. Stephan Larsson, Canada
43. Al Majauskas, Canada
44. Howard Phelan, Canada
45. Derwyn Ross, Canada
46. Florentina Silianu, Canada
47. Dr Howard Tenenbaum, Canada
48. Lyndon Trombley, Canada
49. Greg Urton, Canada
50. Alex Abumohor, Chile
51. Enrique Casanovas, Chile
52. René Hurtado, Chile
53. David Paterson, China
54. Jonothan Keir Sims, China
55. Andreas Christodoulides, Cyprus
56. Charles Hope, Cyprus
57. Michal Bílý, Czech Republic
58. PhDr. Leo Cuda, Czech Republic
59. Radek Kveton, Czech Republic
60. Daniel Markvart, Czech Republic
61. Jiri Strachota, Czech Republic
62. Kaspar Bonde Eriksen, Denmark
63. Hugh Sharman, Denmark
64. Juhani Anttila, Finland
65. JOSEPH Alain, France
66. Ricol Fabien, France
67. Pascal Frèches, France
68. Natasha O Shaughnessy, France
69. Lucien Oulahbib, France
70. Peter Taylor, France
71. Noirtault Thierry, France
72. Achim Benoit, Germany
73. Christian Bickeböller, Germany
74. Wilfried Boysen, Germany
75. José de la Iglesia, Germany
76. Nikolai Dick, Germany
77. Adelbert Herzog, Germany
78. Christopher Hesse, Germany
79. Bernhard Kleinhenz, Germany
80. Lynda Matschke, Germany
81. Kiana Meier-Friedhoff, Germany
82. Manfred Patzwahl, Germany
83. Rafael Sterzer, Germany
84. Christoph Wallner, Germany

85. Lutz Weber, Germany
86. Michael Wegener, Germany
87. Christian Ziep, Germany
88. George Zikos, Greece
89. Bence Gabor Peter, Hungary
90. Pandu Wisaksono, Indonesia
91. Roger Eldridge, Ireland
92. Terry O Sullivan, Ireland
93. Rabbi Gabriel Cousens MD, Israel
94. Antonio Bettanini, Italy
95. Giorgio Caprile, Italy
96. Massimiliano Diodati, Italy
97. Laura Fanfani, Italy
98. Claudio Antonio Lucchesi, Italy
99. Graziano Murru, Italy
100. Mario Natalucci, Italy
101. Maria Psalidi, Italy
102. Domenico Salimbeni, Italy
103. Maurizio Tambani, Italy
104. Gino Attilio Timo, Italy
105. Vincenzo Trainito, Italy
106. Giancarlo Troiani, Italy
107. Giorgio Vismara, Italy
108. Mikhail Boreyko, Kazakhstan
109. Carlo Besenius, Luxembourg
110. Paul Andersson, Netherlands
111. Ado Bloemendal, Netherlands
112. Paul Claes, Netherlands
113. Willem Hageman, Netherlands
114. Rene Houthoff, Netherlands
115. Dick Kraaijenbrink, Netherlands
116. Konstantinos Letsios, Netherlands
117. Paul Markus, Netherlands
118. Tom Pieterse, Netherlands
119. Sandro Stoffers, Netherlands
120. Peter Venema, Netherlands
121. Duncan Christie, New Zealand
122. Bruce C Collings, New Zealand
123. Jesper Siegfried Enerstvedt, Norway
124. Nina Jonsson, Norway
125. Vivi-Ann Sandnes, Norway
126. Haavard Skjaervik, Norway
127. Svein Olav Stormark, Norway
128. Juan Lazo, Peru

129. Jose Tapia, Peru
130. Alain Charles Veloso, Philippines
131. Pablo de la Fuente de Pablo, Poland
132. Szymon Głąbski, Poland
133. Marek Langalis, Poland
134. Rui Abreu, Portugal
135. Flavio Barbara, Portugal
136. Alexander Rodriguez, Singapore
137. Milos Dian, Slovakia
138. Milan Gábor, Slovakia
139. Lore-lei Cerqueira, South Africa
140. Jan Tredoux, South Africa
141. Leopoldo Abadia, Spain
142. Manuel Espejo, Spain
143. José María Fernandez-Bravo Álvarez, Spain
144. Luis Garcia, Spain
145. jose Ignacio garcia Bielsa, Spain
146. José Ignacio Herreras Espinosa, Spain
147. Antonio Lista, Spain
148. Jorge López Pollo, Spain
149. Javier Miguel Gonzalez, Spain
150. Luis Muñoz, Spain
151. Vicente Nomdedeu, Spain
152. Gert-jan Mathijs Oepkes, Spain
153. Ricardo Pascual Iglesias, Spain
154. Pedro Reche, Spain
155. Elena Simó, Spain
156. Inge Bjart Torkildsen, Spain
157. Carlos Urrutia Nebreda, Spain
158. Zhamuel Boij, Sweden
159. Erika Brandt, Sweden
160. Lars-Olof Ödlund, Sweden
161. Leif Ringhagen, Sweden
162. Mikael Wollnäs, Sweden
163. Janos Vrbata, Switzerland
164. Peter Pop, United Arab Emirates
165. Gordon Ballantyne, United Kingdom
166. Keith Brown, United Kingdom
167. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin, United Kingdom
168. Aidan Condie, United Kingdom
169. Robert DABLE, United Kingdom
170. Eugene Daniel, United Kingdom
171. Michael Davies, United Kingdom
172. Ruth Ferguson, United Kingdom

173. Patrick Fossett, United Kingdom
174. David John Fraser, United Kingdom
175. Michael Gilding, United Kingdom
176. Roland Gilmore, United Kingdom
177. Kenneth Gorman, United Kingdom
178. Solomon Green, United Kingdom
179. William Hawkins, United Kingdom
180. Martin Haywood-Samuel, United Kingdom
181. Robert Heath, United Kingdom
182. John Howes, United Kingdom
183. Toni Ives, United Kingdom
184. Bryan Johnston, United Kingdom
185. David Johnstone, United Kingdom
186. Bethany Jukes, United Kingdom
187. Joseph Kavanagh, United Kingdom
188. Howard Koolman, United Kingdom
189. Nigel Lawrence, United Kingdom
190. Andrew Mackay, United Kingdom
191. Richard Maguire, United Kingdom
192. David Martin, United Kingdom
193. Stuart McCarthy, United Kingdom
194. Gerrard Mccluskey, United Kingdom
195. Stephen J. Medlock, United Kingdom
196. Hilary Muggridge, United Kingdom
197. Robert Nellist, United Kingdom
198. Morkel Otto, United Kingdom
199. Andrea Pearson, United Kingdom
200. Robert Peddar-Adams, United Kingdom
201. Stephen Peliza, United Kingdom
202. Vela Rasarathnam, United Kingdom
203. Yvonne Ross, United Kingdom
204. Leo Rutherford, United Kingdom
205. Catherine Shipley, United Kingdom
206. Nick Stedman, United Kingdom
207. Angie Stone, United Kingdom
208. Charles Tannett, United Kingdom
209. Desmond Thompson, United Kingdom
210. Ian Travers, United Kingdom
211. Jack Turnbull, United Kingdom
212. Andrew Verdon, United Kingdom
213. Richard Ward, United Kingdom
214. Neil Wilkes, United Kingdom
215. D. Williams, United Kingdom
216. Nigel Wilson, United Kingdom

217. Greg Abell, United States of America
218. Dr. James Aldrich, United States of America
219. Paul Allyn, United States of America
220. E Scott Argento, United States of America
221. Roger Ayotte, United States of America
222. Michele Baxter, United States of America
223. Richard Bay, United States of America
224. Carl Beels, United States of America
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226. Thomas Bingel, United States of America
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229. Sue A. Brown, United States of America
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237. Pamela Cornelius, United States of America
238. Charley Cropley, United States of America
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240. Jeff Davison, United States of America
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260. David Houghland MD, United States of America

261. David Jaskierny, United States of America
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263. Timothy Kearney, United States of America
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265. Stephen Larbig, United States of America
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271. Linda Mckenzie, United States of America
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274. Geoffrey McNiven, United States of America
275. Pamela Mcvicar, United States of America
276. Jim Medlar, United States of America
277. Ed Meyer, United States of America
278. William Moye, United States of America
279. Maurice Murphy, United States of America
280. Kimon Nicolaides, United States of America
281. Arnold Nordeng, United States of America
282. Naomi Nye, United States of America
283. Jeffery Osborn, United States of America
284. Judith Osterman, United States of America
285. John Pearrow, United States of America
286. Bernard Raad, United States of America
287. Phyllis Rampulla, United States of America
288. Miriano “Max” Ravazzolo, United States of America
289. James Rice, United States of America
290. Anita Roche, United States of America
291. Al Rogers, United States of America
292. Charles G. Sandell DMD, United States of America
293. Ed Sebesta, United States of America
294. Marina Shea, United States of America
295. Roy Shockey, United States of America
296. Deborah Simpkins, United States of America
297. Christopher Snyder, United States of America
298. James Spence MD FACP FCCP, United States of America
299. Richard F. Storm, United States of America
300. Tatiana Sugar, United States of America
301. Doug Swartout, United States of America
302. Ronald Tarbutton, United States of America
303. Don Thompson, United States of America
304. Jeffrey Tschida, United States of America

305. Peter Ulasien, United States of America
306. Ronald Ulrich, United States of America
307. Russell Vogel, United States of America
308. Gary L. Wade, United States of America
309. James Waldo, United States of America
310. Glenn Weckel, United States of America
311. William Wharton, United States of America
312. Stacy Wick, United States of America
313. James Williams, United States of America
314. James Colin Wright, United States of America